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1 July 2008
Bligh running aground
Is it just mid-term blues, or after effectively 19 or so years of Labor governments, are voters ready to change? The answer from our research appears to be "Possibly, possibly not, but they are more likely to do it now than at any other time in the last 19 years". Today's announcement that the Liberals are ready for amalgamation may help to swing the electors more in that direction.
One thing is certain, Bligh will not be rushing to an early election.
Recent Galaxy polling suggested that the Coalition and Labor were neck and neck on primaries. I thought it was a rogue sample, but when our polls, which traditionally lean to the left, say much the same thing, then something is happening. In the BCC elections I successfully picked the result by adjusting our results 10% further towards Campbell Newman. If I do that in this case, Springborg and the Coalition would be on more than 60% of the two-party preferred result, an improbable result.
Politics is dynamic, and with an election not due until the end of next year, Anna Bligh can change course and rescue her government. She's already started to do that, trying to distance herself from Peter Beattie.
In fact, she will have to behave like Peter Beattie to win the next election. Beattie was notorious for apologising for the mess he or his party had created in the first place, and then run against his own party declaring that he was the only one who could fix the problem. He got away with that partly because the opposition was regarded so poorly that voters were torn between punishing them and rewarding Beattie yet again.
Similar dynamics are in play here. When we look at the issues that are important, they are all about quality of life, as embodied in physical and social infrastructure like water supply, roads, transport, health and education. They stem from the strong population growth in south-east Queensland, and the failure of the government to plan how to deal with it. It's a mess of Labor's making.
As a result most respondents think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, including Greens voters. This leads them to mark Anna Bligh down, and blame her for being too close to Beattie. Even those who are favourable to Anna think she needs more time, a reflection of the way Beattie still defines Labor and its leadership.
However, when they look at the opposition they are not impressed. They tend to like Springborg, but even so, many feel they don't know him well-enough, despite his 20 years in public life. They are also concerned that he does not have a team behind him, and especially express concern about the behaviour of the Liberal Party. In this context some mention the proposed merger as a positive.
In terms of issues, the political climate is very much like it was in the local government elections. Environment and quality of life are central, and candidates who can credibly promise to safeguard and improve them were rewarded. In most cases, when there was a clash between independent and party candidates, such as on the Gold Coast or in Townsville, the independent won.
Not surprisingly, "party" turns up as a negative for both Bligh and Springborg."Greener" voters may well be the key to this election, and they are particularly antipathetic to the mainstream parties.
I've put some tables below. We had 924 responses, which was fantastic.
Key points:
- There has been around a 10% swing against Labor since the last election On our poll this results in a 52% majority to the Coalition after preferences.
- A majority thinks the state is heading in the wrong direction, including 62% of Greens voters
- The most important issues are infrastructure, water, health, transport, roads, and population.
- Most (61%) disapprove of the performance of Anna Bligh, and her biggest negative is Peter Beattie.
- 41% approve of Lawrence Springborg, and 31% disapprove, and his biggest negative is his team and the Liberal Party.
- 38% of voters each prefer Bligh or Springborg, with the remainig 24% uncertain.
- 65% expect Labor to win, but 42% would like the Coalition to win.
| First_Preference | Total |
| Christian Democrats |
0% |
| Democrats |
1% |
| Family First |
3% |
| Greens |
21% |
| Independent |
4% |
| Labor |
30% |
| Liberal |
20% |
| National |
18% |
| One Nation |
1% |
| Other |
1% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
|
Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted by Graham at 03:21 PM | Comments (20)