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6 November 2008
Introducing the FPI
On our latest polling Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon with the electorate is over while Kevin Rudd’s has just entered a new intense cycle!

But before discussing what is going on, I should explain some changes in the way we are approaching the polling, and introduce the FPI to you. I should also say thank-you to Sirromet who sponsored the wine research we did at the same time. Worth clicking on their label to the right.
As we are planning to poll monthly, we are going to track the movements between surveys. While our sample is not representative of the general population, we also assume that it is not unrepresentative either. That means that while percentages from our surveys would not be expected to exactly mirror those in the general population, there should be some relationship between changes in support in our sample versus wider changes
So I am introducing the First Preference Index as a way of tracking changes in party support without being distracted by the actual voting percentages. This index takes the September result for each party as representing a figure of 100 and will then express each month’s results in relation to the base. So, if there is a 3 percent increase (that’s percent increase, not percentage point increase) in support for a party, the index should be 103. A 3 percent decrease would give an index of 97.
From what we know of party support in the general community, to lose an election the ALP index would need to be around 88, and for the Libs to win their index would need to be around 112. These figures may vary if there is a substantial change in support for the minor parties.
At the moment, the ALP index figure stands at 112, and the Liberals at 95, which means the ALP improved its position over the course of the last month. The graph below tracks only the first period, and as a result doesn’t look like much at all. Once we’ve got a few months going, it will take on wormlike characteristics and be much more interesting. I’m also only tracking the major parties and the Greens on the graph because minor party votes will be more volatile in percentage terms and create distortions in how you see the data.

Which brings us back to the leadership. Malcolm Turnbull started with good approval ratings for an Opposition Leader. While 31% approved of him, only 18% disapproved. In the last month or so, based on the responses from our sample of 1716 across Australia, that approval figure has actually grown, but his disapproval rating has grown much faster.

In comparison, Kevin Rudd has rising approval ratings and falling disapproval ratings.

Rudd has won over some Greens voters, energized Labor voters, and also stolen some Liberals. Turnbull has fallen short, not because his approval ratings have dropped, but because his disapproval is up more than 200%.
As noted in our last analysis, Malcolm Turnbull had better approval ratings than Brendan Nelson specifically because he appealed to Labor and Greens voters. The problem he faced was enticing these voters away from Labor. While they might have liked him, they like Kevin Rudd even more, so Turnbull’s approval rating wasn’t a good measure of his electability.
In fact, in some ways it wasn’t a measure of him at all, as it was a reflection of the fact that voters hadn’t had enough time to assess him.
Our qual suggests that Turnbull is taking the fight up to Rudd. The corollary of that is that voters have more information on which to assess him. This information is that he is scoring points against Rudd, their favoured one. Rather than elevating Turnbull in their eyes, it tends to degrade him. The result is that Greens and Labor voters are moving from “Undecided” and “Unsure” to “Disapprove” and “Strongly disapprove”. At the same time, Nationals voters are much more supportive of Turnbull because they like what they see, and were not inclined towards Rudd in the first place.
What this polling shows is that if Turnbull wants a quick march to the lodge, it won’t be Malcolm up the Middle – not unless Rudd stumbles in a big way – but Malcolm sweating-it on the right. For Rudd, it means that he is perfectly positioned, and the looming recession has provided the cement that he needed to reinforce his election win.
This is a problem for the Greens who have benefited from disaffection with Labor. Perhaps it will be only short-term. The last election was the first for decades to be won substantially on an environmental platform – greenhouse. At the moment, the electorate is more interested in the economy. But when the economic crisis has run its course, they may well turn their focus back to the environment, where it is difficult to see either of the major parties meeting the expectations of potential Greens voters.
Posted by Graham at November 6, 2008 02:10 PM
Comments
Watch how the approval rating changes as the unemployment rate spirals out of control. This is a global problem but it will mean the end of the honeymoon period. The opposition are starting to attack the mistakes of the Government with vigour.
Posted by: Tony at November 12, 2008 11:00 AM
I think ALP members must be working overtime filling in surveys, polls and blog sites.
This loose with the truth PM has only blustered and bungled from day one.
It's taken all this time for most media to report that he's the likely source of this latest leak. Something that is a huge political problem, even though his supporters are trying to brush it off as nothing. Not a lot of noise from ALP members standing up and saying it wasn't him. And no retraction in the Australian. Their silence is deafening!
The announcing of an uncapped bank deposit guarantee, then a cap of $1mil, then a compulsory insurance fee for over $1mil. No, now it's voluntary. Then the non solution for frozen funds due to this action has got to be one of the most rushed and ilconceived economic actions ever taken. And this is only one example in a chain of bungling.
The previously unmentioned 'gift' of millions of taxpayers funds to Toyota, that they, nor anyone in Australia for that matter, had ever heard of before the photo shoot to be spent on 'whatever', is another.
Still few figures or reports released on what they are basing their actions on. And the ones they do release have every other department running to make the words or numbers match what the PM has said off the top of his head.
My hat goes off to Ms Gillard.
She has the patience of a saint.
It must be one of the post painful things ever to stand silent holding the bucket for this PMs shit knowing he's bringing the standing of your whole party into disrepute.
Mr Rudd is a very deceitful, cleaver and tricky politician.
Posted by: Ashlee at November 12, 2008 01:52 AM
I can't beleive the comments about Rudd not looking into things thats one thing he is champion at and the results aren't in yet on most. As far as Malcolm goes well what a try hard has yet to make a statement that I have thought "that's positive". I have already suffered under one junior george be buggered if Australia needs another where "the rich continue to get rich" and Malcolm will do that. So give Rudd a break and lets see where we are in about six more months, and stop the breast feeding of every one who cries "we need the government to step in".
Posted by: katie at November 11, 2008 06:18 PM
Pete Cowles wrote (Nov 11) "..Yes, we can vote ..but for who?"
I think we should continue to vote for the Party planning to bring teaching of spelling and grammar back! Then one would ask: "Yes, we can vote ... but for whom?"
And, Mr. Turnbull's performance in Question time today was totally inappropriate: there are so many important issues which could have been discussed and debated (the economy, maybe?) - yet, he harped on the dead issue of whether Bush knew what G20 meant.... hardly anybody except the Opposition cares or thinks it matters!
Posted by: Angela at November 11, 2008 05:29 PM
The approval/Dis-approval Stats are interesting,but for my part I have placed Malcolm at the bottom since he scuttled the Republican Vote for Howard, all he has don since then is make me shrug at the desire to be so negative, in the hope that he will be seen as a leader
who can win government for his party; It is so much in the follow my leader nature of
Liberal party members, that they will even follow those whose philosophy they would not choose, like Malcolm Frazer, who incidentally I see as their best ever leader, though I do not approve of how he got there; but the Labour tends to follow their Faction leaders; however Rudd seems not to have come by that path and his problem to be one of the best Labour PM's will be that their members think for themselves.
The problem of the investment for a more efficient motor vehicle industry will depend on how one can arrange with the big industries, how this will benefit us and how big a jump we can make beyond the dirty gas guzzlers we now make, there was an announcement on the ABC of the potential of a new battery, at half the weight of the lead acid and holding 50% more current, but even then private vehicles will eventually fade away; the need for support for the industry would surely be that a grate many skills are found within that area which could eventually be diverted to the fittings for the renewable energy industry and we cannot afford to loose these.
I see Paul Keating as a vicious little bugger, one whose negative comments can make me me wounder if the attack is a revenge on ideas that did not originate with Paul Keating; however he is intelligent and a good example of the Adversarial political system of which I highly disapprove, but recognize that we will not get rid of it as long as we have the single member electoral system and the “Swill” of an Adversarial Two Party system that it produces.
I do strongly object to any supreme power of government to Censorship; I would that we had a ban of advocation of violence and revenge, but that should come within a Constitution whether uttered by the Terrorist or a politician.
I have spent the last seven years in increasing concern that we would arrive at the position in which we now stand, with massive personal debt, a lag in the infrastructure we should have built, work skills and education unmet, housing prices having created some who are and some who still may be made homeless by debt and the lack of affordable rental accommodation.
Von Dannigan cold not have done better, the U.F.O take over (Unidentifiable Financial Operations) has taken place and the little green Homuncule are with us, yet my fears expressed to many a;ways met with “I can borrow and Negative gear as I wish” only the ex-Senator John Cherry answered Yes it scares the living daylights out of me.
To my mind John Howard has bee the most destructive PM of Australia
Posted by: Peter C. Friis at November 11, 2008 05:14 PM
Love imagining all you "born to rule", right wing conservatives spluttering over your morning toast at the latest poll results.At Least Rudd's Labor is helping the less well off in our society by sharing the spoils.I think that's the main reason the gov't is popular....it cares
Posted by: rayden at November 11, 2008 04:48 PM
Hello. And Bye.
Posted by: XRumerTest at November 11, 2008 04:21 PM
Malcolm seems to be the only one that the Libs have got. Give him a go - he has not been Opposition leader for long.and learns quickly. Remember Rudd's first months. He promised to look at all of the problems, but did nothing.
Posted by: Pete Cowles at November 11, 2008 03:49 PM
From what I can see at the moment, Australia has no politican capable of leading this country.Whether it be Libral,Labor,Greens etc.
This country is going downhill and I can see a very hard time ahead for the average Australian. We need a leader with guts and not a leader who panders to TV stars the artie fartie movements.
Sadly we have none. They don't listen to the people and I think the poll shows that. Yes, we can vote...but for who?
Posted by: Sue at November 11, 2008 03:46 PM
Like many others here, the results aren't surprising. However, I would say that they are not what I would have expected 12 months ago.
Many of the criticisms here are of poor economic management, however, injecting stimulas into an economy to avoid a recession seems like a good strategy, and exactly what a large surplus should be used for in such circumstances. I haven't heard to much oppostion from the Coalition, as I would think even they understand that the stratgey is sound. My critisims would only be using the surplus for subsidising industry, specifically the car manufacturing industy. However given the Howard governement's largesse in this area, the opposition really can't afford to be throwing stones.
What I find interesting about the times is they allow Labor to establish economic credentials, thus blowing a former Coalition criticism out of the water. If the Coalition don't offer real economic or policy alternatives soon, their platfom for re election will be non existant.
On Turnbull, I think he's the only altenative the Liberals have as a leader. Given this he should have the confidence to lead his party. I don't believe he is doing this and is missing a real opportunity for the Liberal party to rediscover itself and set it apart from both the Howard government, or the Rudd government. The Liberal party seems unfocused and this is where Turnbull could make some improvment.
Posted by: Anthony at November 11, 2008 01:46 PM
Very glad to see that a few respondents have mentioned Bishop, Abbot & Hockey.
The religious right will count against the Liberals.
Whereas Malcolm is convinced he can keep Rudd to one term, it will take a monumental stuff-up for Rudd to lose the enxt election - and the Liberal government-in-exile will realise it is really a toothless Opposition.
Then the fun will begin!
I'd like to see more good independents in the Federal Parliament.
Posted by: Bob Emanuel at November 11, 2008 10:11 AM
Gee all those that dont like the results so they will rant against the party x supporters. Get over over it and address the topic.
I suspect that Graham comments are correct. We prefer Turnbull more than Nelson, but would we vote for either?
With the questions you asked I thought we would get more results. Such as percentage of each survey who support x and whether they have changed to support y. It is pretty irrelevant to know that labor voters dont like turnbull. The big issue is turnbull having an effect on coalition voters. Maybe I am unfamiliar with the index you are offering?
Posted by: Private Citizen at November 11, 2008 09:39 AM
The results are some what predictable from a historical point of view. People tend to look to the Govt of the day in a crisis and lend it support, especially when the leader seems calm & measured and takes some assured action. It matters not at the time if the action is correct or sucessful only that it occurs and the voters feel there is a firm hand on the nations tiller.
The future is writ large, Turnbull will get a turn at the big big gig if he just hangs in there and keeps his pants up, hands out of the trough etc. The stars say, "every thing the Kiwis do Australians do eventually." So he just needs to sit back go through the motions ,start bleaching his teeth and walking round lake Burley Griffin with journalists and time will take its toll on Rudd as he drags us through the mess of the Howard, Bush, Blair legacy.
For us the mere mortals what can we do ? Local actions and pressure politics on the horizon / fringes of your local politican awarenes, get to it Australia.
Posted by: Peter T at November 11, 2008 09:26 AM
Three cheers for June, nov 11, 7:49
Her words are mine exactly.
Posted by: agnes at November 11, 2008 09:22 AM
I am concerned at the push for wind energy by the Labor Government and the Greens. This form of energy is a quick pseudo "Green" fix and a great way to generate carbon credits to allow us to continue to produce CO2 much as before. Ie allow mining to expand, developers to set up new housing estates on the River Murray while our food source dies.
There is extensive environmental damage being done by these massive wind farms with little research into local impacts as far as rain shadow creation etc. If mining companies went into the same areas there would be a hue and cry of the first order. People concerned at the genuine impact on their health, property and local environment are maligned as being NIMBY's in much the same way as those who opposed the Iraq War- and I organised the first official protest in Australia- the Doves of Peace.
If we were genuine in saving the planet and contributing meaningfully to Carbon reduction we would be giving full support to Geothermal- but Labor, Liberal and Greens have too many big interest partners in the other generating sectors.
So while I support the initiatives being taken by Rudd in difficult circumstances largely the resonsibility of previous government and their active participation in the destablilisation of the Middle East I condemn the quick fix in wind freebies til the nirvana of clean coal is realised.
Posted by: Felicity Martin at November 11, 2008 09:07 AM
It's all hocus-pocus yet again. One sides blaming the other for the ills of the world over which we have little influence. Lost retirement savings, people with no substance, overzealous environmental policies. Get over it. Most of Australia's ills are Globally caused, even climate change. Lost retirement savings are a direct result of under-regulated financial systems and crashing stock markets, again, globally. I think Rudd is doing ok considering. I don't vote him however, I vote Green to get the balance of what this country needs, a better managed environment which is quickly going down the tube.
Posted by: Jasen at November 11, 2008 09:04 AM
I think you should track the minor parties, a big problem in Australian media is the narrow-minded dual-party focus.
Your graph should show the ALP, Libs, Nationals, Greens, Democracts etc. There are a number of electorates where there are legitimate 4-way contests between the ALP, Libs, Nats and Green and an in-depth look at preference flows shows that there is a surprising amount of leakage across traditional ideological lines.
Hence i suggest your track the parties as they stand in elections - it is after all a FIRST preference indicator!
Finally, it's about time the Australia media lifted it's game and stopped doing articles that have the labour version of one side, the coalition on the other and no coverage of the other opinions presented by the nationals, greens or other parties (in the case of local, state level etc).
Is it really that hard to cover more than two angles?
Posted by: John at November 11, 2008 08:46 AM
Well, CB, I am often critical of Labor too but your diatribe full of simplistic political assumptions born out of a blinkered mind just about had me adoring Kevin.
Here I am wanting Malcolm to come to the middle and be true to his small "l" liberal roots but unfortunately he is being pushed down the track of negative reactionary opposition. I would respect him far more if he was intelligently discriminating in his government critiques.
Take the recently announced Rudd/Swan rescue/stimulus package for the car industry. There are some worthy elements such as the green car initiative and funding for green components manufacturers/R&D but the overall concept of throwing money into multinational profits is a bit of a stinker. To do what ? Keep labor voters in jobs ? We never seem to get the mix of government support, government control, and market forces right and we never get an opposition that gives us intelligent and creative alternatives.
What Rudd is to be admired for is his adherence to his policy election promises (budget permitting). What he is bad at is good policy that needs to be made in haste in the face of crisis.
Posted by: Mac Nicolson at November 11, 2008 08:40 AM
Rudd is giving lip service to the environment but is now part of Big business.
The coal sector is getting even more subsidies to research “clean coal” an oxymoron if ever there was one.
Why companies that are making obscene profits from coal are being paid with taxpayer dollars to clean up their act is unexplainable.
The new green car plan is a total joke. Why is manufacturing a “big “ hybrid going to help climate change?
The emissions are no better than most mid range cars and the fuel consumption is worse than many current small cars available now.
He is not doing anything to stop clear felling, especially in Tasmania when it is a known fact that this is exacerbating CO2 emissions and reducing CO2 sequestration in the forest.
It is only a matter of time before the chickens come home to roost. Global warming will increase and with it more extreme weather including drastic drought, Peak oil will bring the economy to its knees as it bites harder. Population is increasing even more than under Howard and will make the overall situation even worse than it need be. Then we will see a turn to the Greens in desperation who are at least facing these problems. But it will be too late by then.
The Turnbull/Liberal camp will wither away eventually because they have nothing at all to offer except more of the same.
It will take a drastic series of events for the tide to turn and the general populace to wake up that there must be a huge change in direction.
Posted by: Bob Manton at November 11, 2008 08:25 AM
Hi
Can I ask when are we as a people goping to take responsibility for our own choices. We as a populace get the politicians we deserve, left or right! We were all quite happy to take the upside of the market when it was booming without much looking to the future should it all go a little pear shaped (which lo and behold it has, as market tend to - you can't have gains without a loss somewhere to compare it to). I personally find all politicians a bit on the nose and the world of politics has become so much about blame apportionment and short term fixes which will look good on the front page of a newspaper. Governments of all persuasions are supposed to govern on behalf of the majority of the people, not just the big end of town or the loudest moaners, unfortunately we vote in Governments that pander to both and please noone but themselves.
Phew now I feel better, I'm off for a lie down. I support Labor because I am inherently left leaning, not becuase I support Rudd. I would love to see some proper leadership which may bring a small amount of pain to us all, such is life.
Thanks and warmest regards to you all, my fellow human beings.
Posted by: Bob at November 11, 2008 08:20 AM
The Australian prime minister has the support of many people regardless of the direction he is taking this country and the consequences of government policy. The polls have the federal opposition leader with a reduced level of support.
Does this mean the current government is performing well? I think not.
Does it also mean the opposition could not achieve a better outcome? I believe they would.
The prime minister responds to questions about his government's performance by asking himself a "better question" and then answering with prepared self serving statement. A snake oil salesman may prosper in the short term and a slick snake oil salesman may survive even longer, however, he is still a person that makes a career from the exploitation of the gullible.
Posted by: Daryl at November 11, 2008 08:13 AM
I have to go along with others who have expressed complete surprise at your remarks. I know very few people - fewer by the day in fact - who think Rudd and co are doing are good job. Their management of the economy has been abysmal and we are only just now starting to feel the effects. The media need to start doing what they were once paid to do and start reporting truth and fact. It must be disheartening being paid to prop up Mr Rudd.
Posted by: Peter at November 11, 2008 07:56 AM
Have decided to join David and take my bat and ball and go home. While this make take Mr Rudd/Labor Govt to even new heights on this survey life is too short to suffer the aggravation - can go to 500 for all I care. The only way to survive the next few years is to ignore as much as possible.
Posted by: June at November 11, 2008 07:49 AM
I can understand why the results are so good for Rudd. I am a swinging voter.
Perhaps or hopefully, the extreme capitalism we've been living under will be tempered somewhat. Finally people are 'getting it' and can see that humanity might be worth a look instead of the greed is good attitude, which has prevailed. One only has to look at something as fundamental as childcare (ABC childcare) debacle. I wonder what Howard would have done if he was in power? He might have just said, it's the market forces at play and left all the parents and children in an abyss.
I've yet to see what Turnbull and the oppositions position on this is. However they tend to change their minds.
Posted by: Lee-Anne Hayes at November 11, 2008 07:29 AM
Wake up. All Rudd and Crean do is run to America for the next lot of instructions. The WTO & IMF are running this country. All Howard did was the same. We have had inquiry after inquiry, farmers are broke because of free trade, manufacturing has gone because of free trade. Take out the coal industry and the minerals sold for export because of the greens and then see where we will be.
Absolutely stuff all broke.
Posted by: C Mackee at November 11, 2008 07:21 AM
I am not surprised by the results. I admire Kevin Rudd and know that all the things he is now putting into place are for the benefit of the country, not for his own agrandasment. Turnbull, on the other hand, with his constant carping and fault finding, without any positive input at all, is becomming something of a bore. He refused to be drawn on whether Australia should provide more troops for Afghanastan if asked by an Obama administration. That is because he hasn't a clue of what is the best thing to do. He is simply waiting in the wings for the Government to make a statement, then he will pounce and tell the world that whatever it is, is wrong and that he could do it better.
Turnbull's whole atitude is antagonistic, uncooperative, dissident, fatalistic and jaundiced. It is about time he understood that this country, along with the rest of the world, is in crisis and changed his attitudes to be more positive, optomistic and helpful to the government.
It's all very well being in opposition if you have policies to put forward, but all his policies and ideas are so opposing as to be utterly rediculous.
Posted by: Iris Ashton at November 11, 2008 07:19 AM
I am not surprised by the results. I admire Kevin Rudd and know that all the things he is now putting into place are for the benefit of the country, not for his own agrandasment. Turnbull, on the other hand, with his constant carping and fault finding, without any positive input at all, is becomming something of a bore. He refused to be drawn on whether Australia should provide more troops for Afghanastan if asked by an Obama administration. That is because he hasn't a clue of what is the best thing to do. He is simply waiting in the wings for the Government to make a statement, then he will pounce and tell the world that whatever it is, is wrong and that he could do it better.
Turnbull's whole atitude is antagonistic, uncooperative, dissident, fatalistic and jaundiced. It is about time he understood that this country, along with the rest of the world, is in crisis and changed his attitudes to be more positive, optomistic and helpful to the government.
It's all very well being in opposition if you have policies to put forward, but all his policies and ideas are so opposing as to be utterly rediculous.
Posted by: Iris Ashton at November 11, 2008 07:07 AM
I am not surprised by the results. I admire Kevin Rudd and know that all the things he is now putting into place are for the benefit of the country, not for his own agrandasment. Turnbull, on the other hand, with his constant carping and fault finding, without any positive input at all, is becomming something of a bore. He refused to be drawn on whether Australia should provide more troops for Afghanastan if asked by an Obama administration. That is because he hasn't a clue of what is the best thing to do. He is simply waiting in the wings for the Government to make a statement, then he will pounce and tell the world that whatever it is, is wrong and that he could do it better.
Turnbull's whole atitude is antagonistic, uncooperative, dissident, fatalistic and jaundiced. It is about time he understood that this country, along with the rest of the world, is in crisis and changed his attitudes to be more positive, optomistic and helpful to the government.
It's all very well being in opposition if you have policies to put forward, but all his policies and ideas are so opposing as to be utterly rediculous.
Posted by: Iris Ashton at November 11, 2008 07:07 AM
I am not surprised by the results. I admire Kevin Rudd and know that all the things he is now putting into place are for the benefit of the country, not for his own agrandasment. Turnbull, on the other hand, with his constant carping and fault finding, without any positive input at all, is becomming something of a bore. He refused to be drawn on whether Australia should provide more troops for Afghanastan if asked by an Obama administration. That is because he hasn't a clue of what is the best thing to do. He is simply waiting in the wings for the Government to make a statement, then he will pounce and tell the world that whatever it is, is wrong and that he could do it better.
Turnbull's whole atitude is antagonistic, uncooperative, dissident, fatalistic and jaundiced. It is about time he understood that this country, along with the rest of the world, is in crisis and changed his attitudes to be more positive, optomistic and helpful to the government.
It's all very well being in opposition if you have policies to put forward, but all his policies and ideas are so opposing as to be utterly rediculous.
Posted by: Iris Ashton at November 11, 2008 07:05 AM
I am not surprised by the results. I admire Kevin Rudd and know that all the things he is now putting into place are for the benefit of the country, not for his own agrandasment. Turnbull, on the other hand, with his constant carping and fault finding, without any positive input at all, is becomming something of a bore. He refused to be drawn on whether Australia should provide more troops for Afghanastan if asked by an Obama administration. That is because he hasn't a clue of what is the best thing to do. He is simply waiting in the wings for the Government to make a statement, then he will pounce and tell the world that whatever it is, is wrong and that he could do it better.
Turnbull's whole atitude is antagonistic, uncooperative, dissident, fatalistic and jaundiced. It is about time he understood that this country, along with the rest of the world, is in crisis and changed his attitudes to be more positive, optomistic and helpful to the government.
It's all very well being in opposition if you have policies to put forward, but all his policies and ideas are so opposing as to be utterly rediculous.
Posted by: Iris Ashton at November 11, 2008 07:05 AM
I am pleased with the results of this survey as I believe the Rudd Govt. should be given the opportunity to prove themselves. Rudd has a very good ministry, Julia Gillard, Lindsay Tanner and Wayne Swan are performing particularly well at the moment (I do watch Parliament Question Time and listen to to the sitting sessions when I can). The Government are all over the Opposition and Turnbull and Julie Bishop make fools out of themselves constantly. JB has really made a bad start in her new portfolio as Treasurer, not once but twice she has been caught out plagerising others work. She obviously lacks original thought and relies too heavily on her staff and pays no attention to detail. Furthermore, Rudd has inherited a nightmare situation with the collapsing global economy after the years of Howard & Costello riding on the boom times, encouraging unsustainable spending while wasting opportunites to firewall our economy against the inevitable downturn (what goes up, must come down). And how much did that war in Iraq really cost? Not only in dollar terms, but what of the environment.
Posted by: Rosalind at November 11, 2008 07:03 AM
Turnbull's problem (as with most oppositions - but particularly Liberal oppositions)is his sheer negativity. He continues to oppose but without any constructive alternatives as Labor did since the advent of Rudd.
Turnbull is also hampered economically as he is viewed (accurately or not) as being a representative of those banks and financial speculators who contributed to the current problems.
Finally the Liberals have the same problems as the Republicans - while Julie Bishop is no Sarah Palin, the overall support from the Liberals and their association with the religious right is a serious concern. This is not to say that we should not be concerned about Rudd's sucking up to Family First, just that it's the Liberals who have a philosophical affinity with these groups.
Posted by: Anthony at November 11, 2008 06:50 AM
The previous Government wasted money on buying middle class votes --"middle class welfare" as one journalist calls it. As a recipient it did not work for me. Whilst we do not appear to be suffering such hardships as others in the world, we would have been in an even better position if money had been spent on infrastructure and education.
Posted by: Lyn at November 11, 2008 06:43 AM
Turnbull's performance since becoming leader reeks of opportunism. While electors are currently concerned about the economy, jobs, their's and their children's future, they will be wanting a Government that provides substance, stability and professionalism. Many will also want global warming to be executed at the same time. In this climate the Opposition has been found sadly wanting.
Posted by: Athol at November 11, 2008 06:42 AM
The results are to be expected - we are generally smarter than to believe the Liberal Party's constant and annoying non-constructive criticisms of not just the labour party policies but individuals. Personally I find it boring and lately have taken to muting the radio whilst any Liberal politician is speaking towards criticism instead of the issue. I like Rudd and think he could well be one of the best labour leaders we have ever had (and Gough changed the face of australia for the better!). I want focus on the broader picture that includes climate change and on a level that looks at improving public transport. Propping up the motor industry is not working - how much money has been spent on them over the last 20 years!! way too much for what we get back. Many of those 66000 people employed by the industry could have been retrained in other areas that need people such as nursing! wht a boost to the health system that would be ... I just hope Rudd doesnt do what so many have done before - get sucked into the system that changes them from being focused on the people to being focused on the needs of the business world (trickle down does not work!).
Posted by: Lynn at November 11, 2008 05:52 AM
Just one tiny quibble. The graph looks like it was made by Excel. For some reason, I've always disliked the graphs Excel produces. There has to be some nice software for producing graphs out there!
Posted by: John Brookes at November 10, 2008 11:13 PM
I quite like Malcolm, even though I'm a Labor type. However, from a strategic point of view, surely he would do best if for now he confined himself to a "wartime" opposition role. Rudd didn't invite Malcolm to be part of a bipartisan approach to the financial crisis, and Malcolm should do the right thing and support the government. Closer to the next election, Malcolm can start throwing stones.
Posted by: John Brookes at November 10, 2008 11:08 PM
Boy, are you guys in for a shock. I was just at voting age when Whitlam was tossed out, thank God, and the people were quick to validate that action. I lived through the Recession we had to have under Keating.
You are idealists in fairyland, with minds filled with the propaganda of the teachers' unions and it is time you grew up and looked back at real history.
I hope you and your families are able to keep your jobs and your homes when reality hits.
Wake Up, and stop being gullible fools wasting your votes on Greens who will never govern the country and Labor visionaries with warm & fuzzy speeches, and policies made on the run that are of no substance. They have a feeling of entitlement and a desire to be loved by the people. Talk about the opiate of the masses - it is not religion, unless it is left-wing religion!
Government is not a popularity contest. Vote for the bastards who have demonstrated they can ACTUALLY do the job. You don't have to live with them. If the previous government had not been as competent as it was, we would be in disastrous trouble already.
Posted by: CB at November 10, 2008 10:50 PM
Malcolm who? I really haven't had a great sense of Malcolm Turnbull taking position on anything much lately. Or perhaps I have just been distracted..?
I supported Rudd - a concession to remove Howard quickly - as I am really more aligned with the Greens. I applaud the Rudd government's quick move on saying, "sorry", to indigenous people who were dispossessed and support the plan to stimulate spending, although I am waiting to hear some of some action on the disgraceful NT intervention (were residents asked how they could be assisted?). I (reluctantly) support their stance on ABC Learning. The government should not support private enterprise, but what happens to the country if 1000s of parents can't get to work tomorrow because child care centres close. I am watching this matter with interest.
However, I strongly oppose the government's move to censor the internet. If families decide to censor some sites from their children, that is their prerogative, however, government censorship of sites alarms me. Why should the government be able to tell me (a consenting, intelligent and educated adult), what I should be able to see or read?
In news just to hand, I have concerns about the move to shore up the auto industry. This industry has been protected for many years. If we can't manufacture cars profitably, then our resources should be directed to what we can do well. While there is a case for government supporting industry in a start-up or innovative phase, it has to be self-supporting eventually if it is to continue.
Finally, I am disgusted by the Rudd government's stance on the death penalty of the Bali bombers. Our country's position is that the death penalty is wrong. If it is wrong, it is wrong in all instances. It is hypocritical in the extreme to keep silent over the execution of the bombers and then (in the same week) to indicate that they will oppose the execution of the Bali 9. Either the death penalty is appropriate or it is not. You can't pick and choose.
If an election were held today, I would have strong reservations about voting Labor. I have never been a Labor stalwart, but backed them in the move to overthrow the oppressive Howard government. I'm not so sure I would do the same today.
Posted by: Jacqui at November 10, 2008 10:07 PM
Patrick B at November 10, 2008 08:08 PM,
I am certainly no Liberal supporter but very much a across the board person. I criticise Rudd because he can't move past erecting symbols.
After he and Swansong spent their first month or two in government doing nothing but running the economy down to reduced inflation, they are now facing an economy that quickly started to go backwards and they, the ALP, have found that after 12 years in opposition, still have zero policies that will actually run the engines of government.
I do believe that is was Howard's time to go but he was replaced by a person whose only motivation in life is to make Australia, a colony of Red China.
Posted by: Earth.W at November 10, 2008 09:51 PM
Rudd is the best conservative Labor PM of all time.He looks composed at all times.Turnbull's rant about Rudd and his wife is just the beginning.This was followed up by the very reliable Tony Abbott who showed through the last election campaign that he is rarely in tune or on time! Like Turnbull,he is unable to stay cool for very long.The Liberals have nobody else at this time and will just have to stay with him. It is disappointing to hear the "reds under the bed" philosophy being put onto this forum.Now that sort of stuff is really out of touch!
Posted by: David at November 10, 2008 09:35 PM
Sorry Graham
I no longer wish to participate in your surveys
I do not know who these people are that think MR Rudd is doing such a good job, but they just have no idea of the damage this man is doing to the economy of Australia
You just had to watch "A current Affair" tonight to see what a sad excuse of a Prime Minister this man is
I am truly worried about the future of my country under this man
The journalist in this country need to take a long hard look at themselves and need to start reporting the facts and not just to cover for Mr Rudd. How about some hard question for a change
" On our latest polling Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon with the electorate is over while Kevin Rudd’s has just entered a new intense cycle!"
what a load of crap!!! Please no more of your surveys if this is the sort of result you come up with
I apologise for the spelling errors in this post but I'm am just so cross, how many of you are now better off than you were 12 months ago, I know I am not, my retirement savings have gone down the drain and where I was once going to be a self funded retire and therefor no burden on the Australian Government(even after having worked since I was 15 years olD and paid my taxes all that time) I now will be looking to a pension in a few months time to be able to survive)
Good night and Goodbye
Posted by: Lesley at November 10, 2008 09:33 PM
I think that Rudd will start to feel the pressure over the next 12 months. I think Turnbull has hit the ground running while Rudd is still jogging on the spot. Nothing seems to be happening other than talk and more advisory committees. The hand outs won't achieve anything other than spend the surplus. I see Aust. going into debt and it will be up to the Libs to dig us out of it again. Feels like history repeating.
And, how can the Howard government be called complacent? It wasn't the Rudd government that invested in the right areas to grow the future fund in spite of the decline in world economy, even though they are claiming it. They will sure know how to spent it though.
And to finish with a quote from a union official I made the unfortunate acquaintance with once about a year ago which sealed my vote for the Libs forever. "It's our god given right to stick it up those *#%^& employer $@!# every chance we get!"
and you call Libs negative :/
Posted by: Pete at November 10, 2008 08:51 PM
The way I see it is that it is difficult to form a picture of the performance from the daily tabloids as most of our really good journalist don't write everyday - I still think Turnbull is a lightwieght, and Rudd is 'steady as she goes' I think as with Whitlam the libs are jealous of him he is too well educated for labour - Rudd and his team are keeping on course, despite the occasional cross current, As an old seaman I think Rudd is a good man to have at the helm in the present economic conditions.
Posted by: Bob Cleworth at November 10, 2008 08:47 PM
turnbull and the libs are so out of touch with the australian people,and working class people, that they believe being negative all the time helps all of us.grow up malcolm,go and count your money and let the rest of the nation unite to over come this world wide problem,WE DONT NEED YOUr negatively..
Posted by: rex oliver at November 10, 2008 08:27 PM
Rudd and anyone else for that matter is operating at the whim of the world economy at present, also Barak Obama won't be doing Australia any favours. Unless Rudd seals Australias economic fate with an overzealous 'Global Warming' Strategy he should run two terms.
Posted by: Paul at November 10, 2008 08:15 PM
Graham!!!!
site controller .... comments are not formating properly ....................
Posted by Graham at November 6, 2008 02:10 PM
Comments
I’m not sure about the assumption that those who support minor parties will vacillate. Once one has given up on the major parties they would have to make a huge effort to woo anybody back — I believe.
(I am a swing voter who supports independents whenever possible. Last election getting rid of Howard was the overriding consideration which I think counted against the minors and independents.)
Will people stick with the incumbents if things get really tough — and I believe that they will — will they not lash out , looking to blame/punish anybody for their pain, no matter how irrational that might be?
I think that Rudd is not doing badly, but certainly not ‘well’, and Turnbull impresses me less the more I see of him. With his credentials I expected better of him.
Posted by: peter at November 10, 2008 08:04 PM
If your business is on the driest continent on earth and uses lots of water, reducing carbon footprint, using alternative sources of water, recycling as much as you can without defeating the purpose is a must. I wonder if the Murray irrigators are doing as well.
Solar cells over the top of the dam..... hellishly expensive... I don't doubt that at all. Pie in the sky I suspect. Thanks for the tip.
I posted the comment marked graham ..... peter
Posted by: peter at November 10, 2008 08:11 PM
I strongly support the Labor party and Kevin Rudd. Those Liberal supporters who posted above would do better to try and make their party relevant rather than ranting against the current Government. Howard's complacency and Bush's stupidity have exposed Australia to a serious economic crisis. Why don't you Libs come up with some ideas about how to fix things.
Posted by: Patrick B at November 10, 2008 08:08 PM
I’m not sure about the assumption that those who support minor parties will vacillate. Once one has given up on the major parties they would have to make a huge effort to woo anybody back — I believe.
(I am a swing voter who supports independents whenever possible. Last election getting rid of Howard was the overriding consideration which I think counted against the minors and independents.)
Will people stick with the incumbents if things get really tough — and I believe that they will — will they not lash out , looking to blame/punish anybody for their pain, no matter how irrational that might be?
I think that Rudd is not doing badly, but certainly not ‘well’, and Turnbull impresses me less the more I see of him. With his credentials I expected better of him.
Posted by: peter at November 10, 2008 08:04 PM
If your business is on the driest continent on earth and uses lots of water, reducing carbon footprint, using alternative sources of water, recycling as much as you can without defeating the purpose is a must. I wonder if the Murray irrigators are doing as well.
Solar cells over the top of the dam..... hellishly expensive... I don't doubt that at all. Pie in the sky I suspect. Thanks for the tip.
Posted by: Henrietta at November 10, 2008 07:58 PM
Rudd is pathetic. Remember what Keating said about him- "Can't we find an embassy for that little ####". He only wanted the job as a stepping stone to Secretary General of the U.N.!!.How can australians be so easily taken in by such a phoney???
Posted by: winediamond at November 10, 2008 07:55 PM
Rudd's rating went up because he bought votes at $1,000 plus however, money is spent fast these days. Once the economy hits the skids, jobs, not bribes will take priority.
Should Rudd get to implant his Red China internet controls, his social controls might lead to his political suicide.
Posted by: Earth at November 10, 2008 07:52 PM
Gordon: "My prediction? He wont last long."
Unfortunately Gordon, and although i do agree with you re: the result, Malcolm will be around for quite a while.
The Libs have no credible alternative to him at the moment (Hockey? Bishop? or perish the thought, Abbott?). They would be commiting both party and public suicide if they changed leaders again so soon.
They know they need to put on a united front now but, also unfortunately, they know they have few credible policies that either Turnbull or any other leader could put to the electorate and have not had any policy since their 'hero' was so unceremoniously dethroned.
That is their problem at the moment - not really knowing where they stand nor whence they will go in their collective post-Howard incarnation.
Until both they and the electorate know what these policies are, then the electorate will always look less favourably upon both them and which ever leader they have.
There's little if nothing Malcolm can do about that at this present time. Changing this perception will require credible and suitable policy. And they have neither.
The times suit Labour, not the Libs (to misquote Howard).
Posted by: Chokyi Nyingpo at November 10, 2008 07:49 PM
Rudd has had some 18 to 24 months to create his position while Turnbull 3 or 4, the poll will change all the time and only when there is a reason to get serious will there be any meaningful reflection.
Posted by: Bob Buick at November 10, 2008 07:44 PM
I can only thinks that if this poll is a true indication of Rudd & His governments popularity I & the vast majority of people I speak to must be living in a parallel universe. His ineptitude of His rush to out do not only Turnbull but every other national leader must have been an embarrassment to even His most ardent supporters. As if that was not enough,to expend half the piggy bank makes His calls of Liberal "drunken sailors" spending pale into insignificance. The long months to come will tell the true story. However let us all hope that other surges of madness like the EST do not make our woes terminal.
Posted by: Roger at November 10, 2008 07:40 PM
It doesn't surprise me either - for different reasons to Gordon. During crises the community tends to support the encumbents and, as Graham suggests, when you take up the attack and seek to make the Government accountable you often polarise support.
I am not sure that Turnbull suggesting that more thought could have been given to capping the bank guarantees or that spending half the surplus warranted some more modelling is 'nitpicking'. Turnbull wasn't alone in initially trying to be supportive but then shifting. Many commentators also initially agreed but then, as more information came to hand, had cause to wonder whether the Government's response was entirely correct. Turnbull's original call to guarantee retail funds below $100,000 has, in retrospect, proven to be a better judgement than the Government's guarantee. In any case, the times are more likely to suit Governments than oppositions.
Posted by: Gobsmacked at November 10, 2008 07:33 PM
Malcolm Turnbull is the best thing to happen to the Lib/Nats this year. He is, contrary to some thinking, a man of substance and strong financial credentials who puts the wind up the Greens & Labor. Maybe the supporters of Labor, and in particular PM Rudd, should realise that the Greens perferences got Labor over the line in the first place (at what cost??) and continue to do so, as has been evident in recent by-elections.
Posted by: Gabriel Malocca at November 10, 2008 07:27 PM
While Turnbull is leader of the Liberal Party, there is no way, I would vote for a Liberal Candidate - Not that I would anyway. Turnbull in cohorts with Howard were the architects that scuttled the Republican "Yes" Vote. Turnbull with his intrangience - Howard with his seemingly support of a Constitutional Monarchy.
Posted by: Tom at November 10, 2008 07:24 PM
While Turnbull is leader of the Liberal Party, there is no way, I would vote for a Liberal Candidate - Not that I would anyway. Turnbull in cohorts with Howard were the architects that scuttled the Republican "Yes" Vote. Turnbull with his intrangience - Howard with his seemingly support of a Constitutional Monarchy.
Posted by: Tom at November 10, 2008 07:24 PM
Turnbull has created a new meaning for "bipartisan": agree with the government then criticise when the approach doesn't work. I still prefer him to his predecessors, but can't support the Libs even as a 2nd preference unless they seriously take on Rudd's major failings, including all talk and no action on climate change, education reform, workplace rights and Aboriginal inequality. These were all weak points of the Coalition, and Rudd has disappointed me by embracing symbolism and stopping there. The Libs could get a clue and take him on for these issues, otherwise you will see the split growing, with the Greens heading up as the only credible opposition party.
Posted by: Philip Machanick at November 10, 2008 07:22 PM
Turnbull doesn't come across as genuine when he attacks the Government. It is as if he is always focussed on what possible angle he can criticise on and not how he can be constructive.
Posted by: Lee at November 10, 2008 07:19 PM
I find two things in your report hard to believe:
1. Greens returning to Rudd? With Garrett? With Rudd's dishonest and pathetic effort on climate change and support of the coal industry? Come on! Greens aren't that stupid.
2. The Turnbull prediction. While I think it is true he's playing politics, at the same time he is very intelligent, argues magnificently (even if I disagree with what he is saying), and has, what can I say, gravitas, presence. Something that Howard and Nelson never had.
Posted by: John Biggs at November 10, 2008 07:17 PM
I am pleased to see the results, as Mr Turnbull seems to think he has all the answers to all the problems we are facing at this point in time.
I feel he should put his money where his mouth is, if he thinks he can solve the worlds financial woes, then he should put up or shut up.
message to Malcolm, Mr Rudd is not the cause of the melt down. and we are not so dumb to think he is.!
Posted by: Pat at November 10, 2008 07:15 PM
I am pleased to see the results, as Mr Turnbull seems to think he has all the answers to all the problems we are facing at this point in time.
I feel he should put his money where his mouth is, if he thinks he can solve the worlds financial woes, then he should put up or shut up.
message to Malcolm, Mr Rudd is not the cause of the melt down. and we are not so dumb to think he is.!
Posted by: Pat at November 10, 2008 07:14 PM
I am pleased to see the results, as Mr Turnbull seems to think he has all the answers to all the problems we are facing at this point in time.
I feel he should put his money where his mouth is, if he thinks he can solve the worlds financial woes, then he should put up or shut up.
message to Malcolm, Mr Rudd is not the cause of the melt down. and we are not so dumb to think he is.!
Posted by: Pat at November 10, 2008 07:14 PM
The result doesn't surprise me. The more we get to see of Turnbull the more obvious it becomes that the man has no substance. His style of initially agreeing with everything The Gov. proposes and then backsliding and nitpicking on the same issues is indicative of an opposition leader with no political nous whatsoever. My prediction? He wont last long.
Posted by: Gordon at November 10, 2008 10:22 AM