« Our quantitative results broadly consistent with Neilsen, Galaxy and Newspoll | Main | Introducing the FPI »
23 September 2008
Federal Leadership - the Qual
While Turnbull doesn’t seem to have changed many, if any, votes, he has excited voters. Whether this excitement can be turned into votes for the Liberal Party remains to be seen, but if they can be, it will most likely be by a completely different path to that taken by Liberal leaders for the last 33 years.
No Liberal leader in my lifetime has held government securely by governing from and for the centre. All successful non-Labor governments have needed a significant percentage of conservative blue-collar votes, and they have won these votes by accentuating the philosophical differences between them and Labor. (The now-sainted Malcolm Fraser was the first Prime Minister that I remember consciously espousing this theory apparently under the influence of his then advisor David Kemp).
The excitement about Turnbull is as much from the centre and the left as it is from the right. This is reflected in the relative lack of enthusiasm for him of National Party voters.
When asked what they like about Turnbull the majority of voters instance him being a small “l” liberal, and his views on the Republic and Climate change. They frequently use the word “Liberal” with a capital “L” as well to indicate that he is not like the party of Howard, Costello and Nelson. A lot of his support therefore comes from people who will like him only so long as he represents a repudiation of the Liberal Party.
The obverse of this is that the same issues that recommend him to one set of voters – republic, environment and social attitudes – are instanced by the other set of voters, as reasons to hesitate in voting for him. The problem for Turnbull is that the second set of voters is the one that most strongly supports his party’s brand of politics.
A traditional approach to this problem would be to turn his back on the progressives. The other approach would be to assume the support of conservative voters and try to move the Liberal Party more into the centre. This tactic would probably strengthen the National Party, who would be well-placed to pick-up the disillusioned on the right, but would it result in many in the centre or left shifting their allegiance to the Liberals when they already have a republic and climate change champion in Kevin Rudd?
Perhaps the answer for Turnbull is to concentrate on those characteristics which all constituencies can find attractive. Voters also associate concepts of strength, leadership, and intelligence with Turnbull. They see proof of this in his past as a successful businessman, and also in his presentation. He is articulate and presents confidently. (Click here for the Leximancer map which demonstrates this).
Rudd’s qualities are a lot softer than Turnbull’s. He is less charismatic. Labor supporters like the way he is addressing issues. They also like the fact that he is a hard worker. Liberals concede that he is intelligent and thoughtful. Greens give him marks for keeping his promises. Rather than a superstar politician, the qual on Rudd suggests he is seen as an honest trier. (The Leximancer map is here).
Hesitations about Turnbull centre on his personality, the policies he stands for, and the Liberal Party. Arrogance is certainly one factor, but it is minor compared to general systemic concern about the interests that he represents. Surprisingly, his history in business is not a major issue. As noted earlier his small “l” credentials also work against him with some voters. (Confused? Try the Leximancer map.)
Rudd’s problems are also systemic – the Labor Party is not held in any higher regard than the Liberal Party. Then there is Rudd himself. Is he strong enough, does he have his mind on the job, or is it all overseas trips? A theme that comes through in a number of permutations is that he is “all talk and no action”. The word “talk” is associated with “action” 56% of the time! “Substance” is also an issue, as is “time”.
“Time” is hard to tie down. For some, it is that he has not had a long enough time, but for others it is time that he started to do something. Either way, there are temporal expectations that he has to do more before the next election. There is a lot of good will towards Rudd, but it is not limitless, or should I say, timeless. Another hesitation for Rudd is that he is already being seen by some voters to back away from policies that he espoused during the election, so that climate change isn’t always a positive for him. (To see a map of Rudd’s hesitations, click here).
To sum up. Turnbull is seen as energetic, decisive, intelligent experienced and determined, with a social conscience. As a Prime Minister he would make a good captain of industry. Rudd is seen as hardworking, intelligent, experienced and determined, but not decisive, with a social conscience. As a Prime Minister, he makes a good bureaucrat.
Posted by Graham at September 23, 2008 08:55 PM
Comments
Rudd is too interested in process IMHO, and does not strike me as a compassionate man. He seems to have a robotic approach and practiced mannerisms. A little bit of feminity in fact!
Turnbull on the other hand, appears more natural with a better sense of humour. Very ambitious as anyone would be who wanted to climb to the "top job" of anything. The fact that he has worked outside government and been successful in life really appeals to me.
Labor has copied a lot of Liberal policies to get into government. Time will tell if they can keep this up. I believe in the protection of the individual rather than society as a whole, and if Turnbull is as good as I think he is, he will sell my belief to the public. Rudd may have to continue saying "me too" until his Party says enough is enough, and we're not like that.
Posted by: Valda C at September 26, 2008 12:49 PM
Malcom Turnbull will become the alternative leader this country needs. I am afraid I do not have one iota of confidence in Kevin Rudd.
At the moment this Labour Government is riding on the back of the work done by Peter Costello. Just imagine if they had inherited the 96 Billion Dollar debt that the Howard Government inherited in 1996. Wayne Swan would be crying!!!
An interesting remark made by Peter last night on Lateline, Plagerism ?
Posted by: HazelPerry at September 24, 2008 08:06 PM
A couple of quick points: Firstly it's too early to tell what Turnbull is or will become. Secondly, and still on Turnbull, isn't he one of those great captains of industry that helped create the current economic climate we now see? He was a highly paid Merchant Banker and these banks are the ones that helped bundle the derivatives products and the sub-prime scams that made them rich, the poor poorer and totally screwed the world economy.They are also the banks that have going broke - sure I really want a guy like that in charge of my country's economy - not! Now ofcourse he had to be decisive to do that (and let's not even go to HIH) but I'd rather a cautious beaurocrat that takes his time to make a sound decision than someone who seizes the day purely in order to make money. Yes I know he grew up in a log cabin but comparitively the rest of us grew up in shoe-boxes. Rudd sure as hell aint perfect but at least he is trying to get it right rather than body-jerk (much bigger than your standard knee jerk) all over the shop. Time alone will tell but I do believe that Mal has a long way to go before he will be credible to the Australian public.
Oh, and by the way, I too have some difficulty in understanding the Leximancer/Venn diagrams. Perhaps a how to guide might be helpful for those of us that are clearly plain fools when it comes to your new fangled display of the analysis.
Posted by: John James at September 24, 2008 06:21 PM
Rudd takes a swipe at coalition Age September 24, 2008 - 2:54PM - "We want to deliver an up to $1,200 a year benefit for working families and I am surprised that the Liberal Party would stand in the road of that in the Senate as well," Mr. Rudd said. Please Mr. Rudd who are the working families? I'm not one nor is my son, and what of those who pay for the sins of the 'Emperor who wore no clothes' - get dressed Mr. Rudd this is the year 2008 not 1008.
Posted by: Rose Taylor at September 24, 2008 05:15 PM
Fair comment but it is unfair to criticise a person for being inactive with a 'hostile' upper house. The other comments I can live with for the moment anyway
Posted by: Bob Cleworth at September 24, 2008 03:57 PM
Everyone loves a circus!! Someone put it very eloquently in regards to Turnbull et al. They have to realise that they are NOT the government in exile. They lost the election and are the OPPOSITION. As for the 'Turncoat' label, it would appear that 'Fullabull' may be appropriate and his off-sider has been given 'Jewellery Bishop'. Means nothing at all about their ability to do their jobs but sure makes politics funnier. 8-D
Posted by: BiBi at September 24, 2008 03:48 PM
Wow what great comments. All over the shop, which is good. To criticise Rudd for 'reading too much' is strange. To praise Turnbull for his 'business acumen' is also strange.
The Australian Parliament is not one of 'leadership'. The main player in Government is the "Prime" Minister...that is the first Minister not a Presidential leader. Hence Rudd's performing as a Prime Minister, not as a autocratic leader, as Howard was.
Rudd's main weakness is that he does not 'trust' his fellow ministers enough to leave their decisions to them.
Turnbull's main weakness is that he has absolutely no idea how the other 3/4 of the Australian population live. He never has and never will so can have no idea what is needed in the social support area of running this country.
Rudd's main strength is his connection with people. He is widely read, he is studious, he is determined and sincere. He is trying hard and he has a sense of humour.
Turnbull's main strength is his charisma. This is not enough to stand up to the power block in the conservative side of politics. Blinky Bishop is a mistake and unless Turnbull soon starts too mark the Liberal party with his own brand he will be watered down.
I too think it is a mistake to call the Greens 'Marxist' when without them there would be no soical 'conscience' of any kind within the parliamentary system.
Posted by: Polly at September 24, 2008 03:27 PM
Every time I see Kevin Rudd's visage, the words "Harry Potter" come to mind but obviously he did not attend Hogwarts, as no magic has been forthcoming.
Posted by: Anthony Brauer at September 24, 2008 01:23 PM
About what I expected, although I'm a little surprised at the perception of Turnbull's 'captain of industry' mantle as a positive, given that he's a banker and they aren't particularly popular right now. I guess the credit crisis in the US hasn't really had much impact here, though.
I suspect Turnbull will struggle with the role of Leader of the Opposition. He is poor at admitting he doesn't know something (eg. the Roosters gaffe) and I suspect this will trip him up a few times more. I also don't thing he's especially talented at formulating good policy, as his efforts to date have been largely uninspiring. That's not a good thing for a political leader. Rudd can be dull, but he has flashes of brilliance. Turnbull is more interesting, but tends to get lost in admiring his own wit and will never see that he needs to be prepared to change his approach, if he wants to be PM.
Posted by: Bill at September 24, 2008 12:45 PM
Mr Turbull does present well both in communication and personal presentation and yes he has been huge success in private sector but he has made a huge mistake in the man mangement decsion on his front bench i belive Julie bishop will become a liability for him and the liberal party she has not landed a punch on julie gillard in parliment and she is from the extreme right and we should never forget that turbull has failed in public arena firstly he failed as minister of the envoriment in howard cabinet by not even benn able to win the argumnet on climate change and also failed to get the water reforms implemented and also recall he was the head spokem of the republic movement and failed miserably to have the australian voters to vote for change and yes he didnt blame him,slef he layed the blame on Mr Howard whta a cop out so time will tell if he has the leadership quality to convince the voters to vote for him
Posted by: Samuel Digiovanni at September 24, 2008 10:54 AM
Mr Turbull does present well both in communication and personal presentation and yes he has been huge success in private sector but he has made a huge mistake in the man mangement decsion on his front bench i belive Julie bishop will become a liability for him and the liberal party she has not landed a punch on julie gillard in parliment and she is from the extreme right and we should never forget that turbull has failed in public arena firstly he failed as minister of the envoriment in howard cabinet by not even benn able to win the argumnet on climate change and also failed to get the water reforms implemented and also recall he was the head spokem of the republic movement and failed miserably to have the australian voters to vote for change and yes he didnt blame him,slef he layed the blame on Mr Howard whta a cop out so time will tell if he has the leadership quality to convince the voters to vote for him
Posted by: Samuel Digiovanni at September 24, 2008 10:53 AM
Mr Turbull does present well both in communication and personal presentation and yes he has been huge success in private sector but he has made a huge mistake in the man mangement decsion on his front bench i belive Julie bishop will become a liability for him and the liberal party she has not landed a punch on julie gillard in parliment and she is from the extreme right and we should never forget that turbull has failed in public arena firstly he failed as minister of the envoriment in howard cabinet by not even benn able to win the argumnet on climate change and also failed to get the water reforms implemented and also recall he was the head spokem of the republic movement and failed miserably to have the australian voters to vote for change and yes he didnt blame him,slef he layed the blame on Mr Howard whta a cop out so time will tell if he has the leadership quality to convince the voters to vote for him
Posted by: Samuel Digiovanni at September 24, 2008 10:53 AM
Turnbull is the man who told us all to use the new light bulb, to help save the environment, but he didn't mention the fact that you cannot throw them out, because they are full of mercury, and when broken, will contaminate the land fill. Didn't he bother to look that far ahead....Just another polly who can't see further than the next election.
Posted by: agnes at September 24, 2008 10:35 AM
Oh dear, what a lot of angst about Turnbull's 'arrogance', as if that wasn't a pre-requisite for being a high profile politician.
Neither of the major parties really cares too much about anything beyond 'power' and the spoils it produces.
This is clear from the narrowness between them on their 'policies'.
Those who bemoan the ALP being 'too close to the NUNIONS' obvoiusly don't pay much attention to 'Gillards progress' or bothered to listen to Rudd as he quite clearly said he wasn't interested in 'the nunions' in the lead up to the last election.
The Rudd vs. Turnbull game is a side issue.... the real issue is what either would do.
We've had years of Howard's policies, which Turnbull happily supported, so his card is marked there.
Those who recall Rudd from his Qld days of destroying the social fabric there would be well aware of his record too.
Let's face it, they all believe in unregulated capitalism, punishing the lower paid, destroying any hint of national schemes like health and education, or public housing or public transport, and will bend over backwards to save all/any banks or major financial institutions if/when they fall over.
And on top of that, both Rudd and Turnbull are card carrying Christians who resent any notions of Australia being a secular state, neither would rid us of the NSCP scam, and Rudd will even expand it to cover each and every school throughout the wide-brown-land as a 'shiny things' bribe prior to the 2010 election.
Instead of focusing on their shallow personalities, why don't people focus on their policies, or lack of them?
Posted by: Howard Haighter at September 24, 2008 10:04 AM
The way I see it, Turnbull has achieved what he has achieved because he is an high achiever. He has become leader of the Liberals because he is a born leader to whom success seems to have come naturally through his own efforts.
Contrast that with Rudd. How did Rudd become the Labor leader? Because after Latham, the Labor Party was in turmoil, and Rudd was the only person not aligned to any faction that seemed acceptable to the public, thanks to his appearances on the morning Sunrise program!
If it's a choice between Turnbull, a man who has made it in the private sector as a successful professional and businessman, and Rudd, a public servant and bureaucrat, I chose Turnbull.
Posted by: merv sullivan at September 24, 2008 09:43 AM
Watching Question time in Parliament yesterday gave me a very good feeling about the Labor Government. The shoe is now directly on the other foot and that is in the control and management of the Labor party in regards to economic management. It was always the strong point and Liberal party's domain but now they are playing politics. If you come up with proposals of paying Pensioners more (for the record I am one) you must also say how you intend raising these funds. We are no fools we know that any Government would prefer to have the pensioners on side and dole out funds to them but the Labor party is taking its time and intend doing it in the proper way. Hat's off to them for doing this. By the way now they are claiming funds from the Government, why the hell didn't they do it when they had all the power, the money and the control of doing it when they were in Government.
Oh I feel good now?
Posted by: Cami at September 24, 2008 09:28 AM
Your analysis is precise and helpful.There is a "huge" personality issue with Rudd.He will have more and more problems connecting with the electorate with his dull and bureaucratic approach.The control bit suggests a degree of insecurity and has a restricting effect on the many talents around him.Yesterday's Question Time was a good illustration of the benefits of his absence.Tanner and Gillard were superb,even Swan managed to score.The Opposition looked like chastised kids. They have a long way to go but Turnbull is clearly listening, trying to look modest.
Posted by: Tom Havas at September 24, 2008 09:24 AM
The early polls already show the Coalition pulling back the Labor lead since Turnbull took on the leadership role. If he continues to take the front foot on policies and acts decisively on issues that effect average Australians, such as pensioners, he will be PM at the next election. Rudd and Labor are being exposed on a daily basis as a party trying to run government from the PMs office and with few policies that have been thought through.
Posted by: Peter D at September 24, 2008 09:09 AM
The criticisms of Malcolm Turnbull have come in far too soon in his leadership of his Party. And many of the comments are based on just a very few days - not even a full week - of leadership, and none of the critics seem to recall his business and organisating ability, that took him from a very ordinary background to the top of the tree in businesses of more kinds than one. You do NOT get there by being stupid or arrogant. And they forget how Kevinn Rudd ran the Queensland Government, becoming known throughout as "Dr. Death" for the way he treated many of the Depeartments and their personnel in the most arrogant and "I am in charge here, and Don't You Forget It !!" attitude.
Posted by: Geoff Cass at September 24, 2008 08:19 AM
Funnily enough, as a long time Labor voter, Turnbull really appealed to me when he was running the republican movement. I soooo hoped that he would be a one day leader of the ALP! I was excited to hear whispers of Labor attempting to recruit him. I've got to say, I'm disappointed he went to the Libs but equally excited that the next time we are stuck with a Coalition Government, it might be influenced by someone with the social awareness and modernist tendencies of Turnbull. But I won't be voting for him.
Posted by: SamP at September 24, 2008 08:18 AM
If there is one thing that true Aussies cannot handle it is arrogance and Turnbull reeks of it.
You only have to watch his performance in parliament to see that he has that arrogant "born to rule" attitude. And for God's sake how did he ever agree to having Juilie Bishop as shadow treasurer. She wouldn't have a bloody clue!
Posted by: Gordon at September 24, 2008 08:05 AM
"To sum up. Turnbull is seen as energetic, decisive, intelligent experienced and determined, with a social conscience. As a Prime Minister he would make a good captain of industry. Rudd is seen as hardworking, intelligent, experienced and determined, but not decisive, with a social conscience. As a Prime Minister, he makes a good bureaucrat."
Spot on.
Pity it is a PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY and we elect incompetent party affiliated members.
Posted by: Paul Cameron at September 24, 2008 08:00 AM
The biggest problem in Government is not who is at the helm, but the process that the system uses to deal with issues, allegations and complainants. If those who fail in their duty of care and/or who do wrong are not identified punished and/or removed they get more and more powerful and more and more brazen. It is no different to what is happening with criminals today.
We made formal complaints of bias, victimisation, bullying, manipulation and tampering of state records, misconduct and corruption against the DET. We sought assistance from Mr. Brogden MP (when he was at the helm) who made representations to the Minister on our behalf. His letter was sent by the DET to those whom we alleged were responsible who then wrote a Submission filled with lies and a draft response to the representations made by Mr. Brogden for the Minister to sign and, on the basis of that Submission and signed letter, drafted by those we alleged were responsible, the matter was deemed closed and I was put on a repetitive correspondence list without any notification of the fact being sent to me. Further representations to Mr. Brodgen and to even later Opposition leaders resulted in a response that said that they didn't have the power or resources to investigate individual complaints and that they couldn't help. So in essence they all played a part in the cover up. The failure of the Opposition to question and challenge supported what was done and ‘allowed’ the matter to be covered up.
So whether they do it on purpose or not all sides of Politics use the same method of dealing with issues and complaints and the general public is being denied procedural fairness and natural justice.
The leaders are generally fed submissions that are full of lies so in essence they know nothing.
Posted by: Jolanda Challita at September 24, 2008 07:59 AM
Shifting the Libs to the left may not historically have been successful but look how far right ALP has drifted. You have to consider social libertarians and environmentalists who may feel left out by the Rudd "new Labor" positions that are not all that far removed from Howard's. Gay rights? Small shift if anything at all. Climate change? Mostly symbolism. Decriminalising refugees? The worst excesses eliminated but more could be done. And so on...
One more thing: Mac, where do you get that the Greens are "marxist"? Are you confusing them with someone else? Point us to the policy on their web site that could be interpreted that way.
What's happening in the UK could be a practice run. If the Tories there unseat Labour by shifting to the "wet" side, we may yet see Turnbull sipping chardonnay in the The Lodge.
Posted by: Philip Machanick at September 24, 2008 07:46 AM
I'm with Marcus. Who do the green libertarian capitalists with a social conscience vote for ?
The Greens - a bit too marxist.
The Democrats - too politically correct and went marxist on us
The Nats - conservative bible bashing, monarchy hugging agrarian socialists
The Libs - a white picket fence /neo con unholy alliance
Labor - too much under the influence of unions and trolls (otherwise known as the NSW right)
Posted by: Mac Nicolson at September 24, 2008 07:36 AM
Turnbull's level of moderation largely sits on the chardonnay set views from a level of society who believe they hold all the answers for the poor, the environment and such. In reality, his electorate wouldn't step foot in middle class Parramatta for its slumville entities.
I met this electorate when Hewson held the seat and from that point, I have held the view that the ideals of these people as is close to reality as the planet Pluto is close to the Sun.
My fear with Turnbull is that he is a champion of selling off the nation's water just like that of the ALP. Infrastructure such as water should never be put into the hands of the few.
Posted by: Earth.W at September 24, 2008 07:17 AM
I think Nelson/Turnbulls' ploy of trying to push a raise in pensions through parliament is showing up Rudd's faults perfectly. He has been cornered. He says that the pensioners urgently need a raise, that they are suffering, but won't act. Then Labor criticises the Liberals that their plan doesn't go far enough to cover carers and others as well. This is after Labor wanted to remove Carer's bonuses earlier this year.
Come on Labor!! DO something. Australia voted you in to make decisions. All this shows me is that Labor was asleep on the job while in Opposition. They should have already had a plan for pensions - they shouldn't have to take 3 years to find a plan!
Posted by: A Solomon at September 24, 2008 06:57 AM
Interesting, if a little sad, point made about the diffuculties of winning an election as a small 'l' liberal. I would love to have the choice of voting for a free market AND socially progressive candidate and party. I voted against Howard in the last election due to his conservative social outlook rather than his economic positions. Rudd increasingly seems equally, if not more, moralistic (taking welfare from 'bad' parents and increasing taxes on alcohol, for example). It would be great if Turnbull placed himself as a more libertarian alternative. Sadly, I don't think libertarians such as myself represent much of a voting block. I work and have a pet cat but I don't think we could collectively be classed as a 'working family'.
Posted by: Marcus Maloney at September 24, 2008 05:15 AM
John Howard successfully outfoxed Keating, Beazely, Crean, and Latham but he met his match in Kevin Rudd. He also outfoxed Malcolm Turnbull on the republic in a classic divide and conquer manoeuvre.
Turnbull being a successful businessman does not equip him to be Prime Minister since the job is essentially the head of a huge bureaucracy, and, unlike Kevin Rudd, he is no bureaucrat.
Posted by: Adrian Edwards at September 24, 2008 12:37 AM
Although I would have preferred to see Dr. Nelson given a fair go I must admit the birth of Malcolm Turnbull (Nelson had 9 months) has ignited a flame between Rudd and Turnbull which has not been seen in Australian politics for more years than I care to remember. However, having said that, if both you Graham, and your readers care to go to my website which has been available worldwide since the year 2000 it sums up my way of expressing the real difference/s between the Leader of the Labor Party and the now Leader of the Liberal Party.
Thank you for the opportunity to read a most interesting article coupled with a diverse selection of comments.
Posted by: Rose Taylor at September 24, 2008 12:27 AM
Bev Collins has got K Rudd right. I don't think he could tell the truth, even when it was to his advantage. Watching him speak, as our PM makes me feel ashamed.
He always gives me the feeling I'm watching a boy, playing the PM, in a school play.
Turnbull is a good media performer, but I doubt his ability.
I am sure Rudd's global warming response, is a cynical action to buy the left vote, but unfortunately, I think Turnbull actually believes the rubbish.
I believe, therefore, he's just too easily conned, to be much use to us, in the next few years.
Just like the US, I am afraid we have a couple of duds. It is not a good time for us to have duds, either.
Posted by: Hasbeen at September 24, 2008 12:12 AM
Rudd is slow but I feel that it is better to thoroughly understand the problems before leaping into the breach. I found the survey result and analysis very informative. Turnbull still has a lot to learn in Parliamentary behaviour as witnessed today during Question Time when he literally demanded that he be heard despite the Chair calling another person. I couldn't hear all he was saying but his body language was very telling.
Posted by: Veronica Heeney at September 24, 2008 12:10 AM
As leader of the republican movement, Malcom Turnbull made such a mess that HIS MODEL not only failed in every State, but whatever momentum there was left has come to naught. Sorry, but I cannot see him as someone who is going to unite people so they will co-operate and build up this country. Talk is cheap!
Posted by: Howie at September 23, 2008 11:48 PM
Yes, Rudd does present a bureaucratic approach but as an almost 29 year federal public servant, I'm comfortable with that. At least he appears to laying the groundwork for some significant changes. Though if some of those aren't commenced and seen by voters to be nationally beneficial by at the latest mid-2009, the 2010 election will be a reall bun-fight.
Posted by: Daryl Douglas at September 23, 2008 11:20 PM
I'm with Graham. Turbull is turning into a carping critic like we had to put up with in Nelson. Yes, he has good maybe even great qualities why does he waste them on political point scoring. What we need right now is statesmen to see us through the next phase of political and financial turmoil. In the current financial melt down about to occur in the US (Yes, folks it has only just begun) Rudd needs to be seeing the creators of this mess face to face. I wouldn't be talking to the instigators of the collapse of the world financial system on the phone either I'd want to look them in the eyes. I just hope Rudd can grasp the enormity of the situation they have put us in and has the wit and will to manage the country though it all. Australia has the chance of coming through the next year or so events with far less damage than the rest of the western countries are going to suffer. When everybody laughed at Keating saying we are part of Asia and our future lies there and we should make strong ties and business deals with our Asian neighbours he had more insight into the future than anyone ever granted to him at the time.
Posted by: Merv at September 23, 2008 11:15 PM
If Turnbull needs blue collar votes,he wont get them in the Eastern suburbs. He will need to look further afield.People can also find "the economy, stupid" a little shallow. While his banking expertise may be useful it could, as well. be a hindrance. The only reason people use banks, is that it's mandatory, not because bankers are trustworthy.Humility and sincerity are in very short supply with our Malcolm and his "I'm humbled" remark, after his elevation, reeked and his body language said so. Why would such a person want to be PM. Is he so profoundly bored?
Posted by: Peter Anson at September 23, 2008 11:15 PM
Its still early days I suppose,but Malcolm should have the courage to say where he has NO INTEREST; Wayne Swan made him seem a bit of a fool in "Question Time " today, it appears he put the NRL Team "Roosters " into the AFL game Finals when making comments early.
I'm a Veteran Disability Service Pensioner & I'm not impressed with the Opposition's Aged Pensioners only Act which went through the Senate;Why didn't they of think of Pensioners like me ???. They are a mirror of John Howard & Peter Costello , they weren't interested either except Photo's,Memorials ,Troops home & bodies .
Posted by: Gerald Minett at September 23, 2008 11:05 PM
Interesting analysis Graham. Thank you. I have to laugh though - I find those Leximancer maps very confusing and am afraid that they throw very little enlightenment my way. I doubt, however, that many of your subscribers have the same problem as I do!
Posted by: Cheryl at September 23, 2008 11:05 PM
Interesting analysis Graham. Thank you. I have to laugh though - I find those Leximancer maps very confusing and am afraid that they throw very little enlightenment my way. I doubt, however, that many of your subscribers have the same problem as I do!
Posted by: Cheryl at September 23, 2008 11:05 PM
What an interesting situation we have. Arguably, the leader of the Liberal Party is further to the left on many issues than the Leader of the Labor Party. Either of them could be the leader of either party, with very little adjustment. It will be a fascinating two years until the next election, and an even more fascinating election in 2010, I think.
Posted by: Gary Byron at September 23, 2008 11:00 PM
What an interesting situation we have. Arguably, the leader of the Liberal Party is further to the left on many issues than the Leader of the Labor Party. Either of them could be the leader of either party, with very little adjustment. It will be a fascinating two years until the next election, and an even more fascinating election in 2010, I think.
Posted by: Gary Byron at September 23, 2008 11:00 PM
Those commenting on the bureacrats are correct; My experience within the Defence Forces proved that no matter who was in power, the Ministry of Defence would go to any lengths to prevent a "Minister for Defence" or a "Prime Minister" from visiting an operational base. They might learn something from the men that the Ministry does not want them to know.
Also, there are two very dangerous beliefs to politics; the first is the belief that the right wing is always correct, and the second is that the left wing is always correct. The truth is that circumstances will dictate when a strict right wing decision will be correct and at other times when a compassionate left wing decision is correct. It takes a brave person to learn the difference.
Posted by: John Clarkson at September 23, 2008 10:50 PM
Turnbull may not be all that hot on process - but his decisiveness may well seem preferable to many to Rudd's all process, no progress.
Posted by: Tom Whitford at September 23, 2008 10:46 PM
I expected to see something new with Turnbull and was looking forward to seeing some intelligent dialog from him that would keep the Labor party accountable. The first few days of his leadership have been very disappointing though as I watch him follow the same old formula of personal attacks and smarmy irrelevancies that characterized the old Liberal heirarchy. Carping on about Rudd's overseas trips is just enviest populist poop that appeals to the least intelligent of voters and carrying on about pensions when his government did absolutely nothing about them is just plain embarrasing point scoring hypocrisy. I won't write him off just yet seeing as he is new to the job, but he's got to start being himself instead of play-acting like a Peter Costello wannabe!
Posted by: Brett at September 23, 2008 10:41 PM
Thanks Graham for this interesting analysis, always good to hear the results (and your reasoned interpretation of them). Keep up the good work.
I personally think Rudd is more charismatic than Turnbull - I can see how his politics may be seen by some as boring, but I think as a personality he comes across as quite likeable, which I think Turnbull is not. Obviously they both have a lot to prove before the next election, but I'd much prefer to be Rudd at this stage.
Posted by: Nick Yates at September 23, 2008 10:39 PM
Turnbull is more assertative than Rudd. Rudd seems incapable of making a decision which is worrying the next time this country finds itself in a crisis when speed is the essence. In parliament he looks more like an undertaker than a leader whilst Turnbull is confident and more decisive.
Posted by: Pieter Kleynjan at September 23, 2008 10:29 PM
I think that unless there are changes made to the way bureacrats handle our Administration system it will not matter who is at the helm society will be failed by the system.
Posted by: Jolanda Challita at September 23, 2008 10:23 PM
I am not a very articulate person so this comment is going to be short and concise, but I see Kevin Rudd as false, he does not come across as a sincere and concerned person, maybe it's his bureaucratic background, he reads everything. Whereas, Turnbull. to me, has passion and comes across as really and truly wanting to make things better for the people.
Posted by: Bev Collins at September 23, 2008 10:14 PM
Malcolm Turnbull is a Turncoat...he has no ticker,no substance and is all 'hot air'.Fance taking onto his front bench someone whop had NO ideas about Communication and he installs this woman to look after Foreign Affairs.....what next John Howard to look after Defence
Posted by: PeterWH at September 23, 2008 10:12 PM
Turnbull will need to change to be an effective party leader. He will have to learn to be a better bureaucrat, managing people, not telling them.
Rudd is a good bureaucrat; unfortunately it appears that is all he is good at; wet behind the ears otherwise.
Posted by: Jack Sturgess at September 23, 2008 10:05 PM