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1 July 2008
Bligh running aground
Is it just mid-term blues, or after effectively 19 or so years of Labor governments, are voters ready to change? The answer from our research appears to be "Possibly, possibly not, but they are more likely to do it now than at any other time in the last 19 years". Today's announcement that the Liberals are ready for amalgamation may help to swing the electors more in that direction.
One thing is certain, Bligh will not be rushing to an early election.
Recent Galaxy polling suggested that the Coalition and Labor were neck and neck on primaries. I thought it was a rogue sample, but when our polls, which traditionally lean to the left, say much the same thing, then something is happening. In the BCC elections I successfully picked the result by adjusting our results 10% further towards Campbell Newman. If I do that in this case, Springborg and the Coalition would be on more than 60% of the two-party preferred result, an improbable result.
Politics is dynamic, and with an election not due until the end of next year, Anna Bligh can change course and rescue her government. She's already started to do that, trying to distance herself from Peter Beattie.
In fact, she will have to behave like Peter Beattie to win the next election. Beattie was notorious for apologising for the mess he or his party had created in the first place, and then run against his own party declaring that he was the only one who could fix the problem. He got away with that partly because the opposition was regarded so poorly that voters were torn between punishing them and rewarding Beattie yet again.
Similar dynamics are in play here. When we look at the issues that are important, they are all about quality of life, as embodied in physical and social infrastructure like water supply, roads, transport, health and education. They stem from the strong population growth in south-east Queensland, and the failure of the government to plan how to deal with it. It's a mess of Labor's making.
As a result most respondents think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, including Greens voters. This leads them to mark Anna Bligh down, and blame her for being too close to Beattie. Even those who are favourable to Anna think she needs more time, a reflection of the way Beattie still defines Labor and its leadership.
However, when they look at the opposition they are not impressed. They tend to like Springborg, but even so, many feel they don't know him well-enough, despite his 20 years in public life. They are also concerned that he does not have a team behind him, and especially express concern about the behaviour of the Liberal Party. In this context some mention the proposed merger as a positive.
In terms of issues, the political climate is very much like it was in the local government elections. Environment and quality of life are central, and candidates who can credibly promise to safeguard and improve them were rewarded. In most cases, when there was a clash between independent and party candidates, such as on the Gold Coast or in Townsville, the independent won.
Not surprisingly, "party" turns up as a negative for both Bligh and Springborg."Greener" voters may well be the key to this election, and they are particularly antipathetic to the mainstream parties.
I've put some tables below. We had 924 responses, which was fantastic.
Key points:
- There has been around a 10% swing against Labor since the last election On our poll this results in a 52% majority to the Coalition after preferences.
- A majority thinks the state is heading in the wrong direction, including 62% of Greens voters
- The most important issues are infrastructure, water, health, transport, roads, and population.
- Most (61%) disapprove of the performance of Anna Bligh, and her biggest negative is Peter Beattie.
- 41% approve of Lawrence Springborg, and 31% disapprove, and his biggest negative is his team and the Liberal Party.
- 38% of voters each prefer Bligh or Springborg, with the remainig 24% uncertain.
- 65% expect Labor to win, but 42% would like the Coalition to win.
| First_Preference | Total |
| Christian Democrats |
0% |
| Democrats |
1% |
| Family First |
3% |
| Greens |
21% |
| Independent |
4% |
| Labor |
30% |
| Liberal |
20% |
| National |
18% |
| One Nation |
1% |
| Other |
1% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
|
Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted by Graham at July 1, 2008 03:21 PM
Comments
I suspect the Greens share of the vote is a tad out perhaps by virtue of the methodology but it does nonetheless indicate that Greens support is coming from people dissatisfied with the general trend (e.g., ignoring peak oil and climate change, with a sudden desire to spend billions on roads and tunnels, when the focus should be on public transport, bikes, and whatever else it takes to get people out of cars).
Posted by: Philip Machanick at July 7, 2008 04:24 PM
This anlysis underscores why the Queesland Government and the Premier needs to break from the past and differentiate themselves from the Beattie era. What Beattie was good at was producing 10 point plans which were essentially political documents for media digestion or to persuage people to vote for him by creating an impression of action. More often than not, these announcements were not accompanied by comprehensive and integrated implementation action - in other words they were not followed by anything real. State government is about service and infrastructure delivery. People notice straight away if our electricity supply is not reliable, if our roads are in bad condition or if our local school or hospital is struggling. An we want answers, action and problems solved. This means government really delivering visible results that make a difference. Beattie got away with the mea culpas and policy backflips for so long because he was a good salesman who needed to rise to the occasion in a crisis, but this style of leadership did not build anything concrete for the longer term. Unfortunatley for Anna Bligh, her government is wearing the impact of this style of operating and she has difficult messes to clean up while attempting to consolidate her leadership and her governing team. She has a difficult time ahead of her.
Posted by: Janet at July 7, 2008 10:06 AM
Good grief, all the Henny Pennys squawking that the sky is falling in. Here is my take:
(1) There is a long-term interest in democracy in having semi-regular changes of government, so the government of the day doesn't get arrogant or corrupt or think it owns government; and to ensure that the electorate have two credible teams with at least some experience in government and who know how to run the State. But at any given election, the Opposition needs to MAKE ITSELF credible and realistic, and not just wait for government to fall by default into its lap. At the moment, Springborg is OK, but I don't see much evidence of credibility or competent hunger for power in the rest of the opposition. So I am not at this stage persuaded we need to change.
(2) Queensland since Joh especially has traded heavily on being a low-tax State. Oppositions generally badmouth the government for any attempt to increase spending, and especially to increase taxes, even when infrastructure is run down and clearly not keeping up with our massive population increase. Well, you get what you pay for, folks. You want more money for hospitals, schools, roads, and the water infrastructure made necessary by the totally unprecedent drought of the past 7 years? Then shut up about governments overtaxing you and accept that outcomes have to be paid for.
(3) Arrogance of individual Ministers or MPs, of either side, should never be tolerated. Merri Rose was mercilessly voted out in a landslide in a State election which the government WON in a landslide. The electorate is not stupid. Likewise, federally, Belinda Neal is certain to lose her seat if she has the chutzpah to stand again. Any whiff of corruption in a Minister must not be tolerated - though it is not fair to tar the whole government, or the Premier, with the fault of an individual unless there's firm evidence of connivance - and I don't believe there is.
(4) A government should be voted out if it is not engaging with the pressing issues of the day. That doesn't mean, if it hasn't solved in no time flat, all the problems of the day! I think the Bligh government IS focused on current pressing problems, but in the process (like Traveston Dam) is bringing down on itself all the local NIMBYs. Selfish, shortsighted, non-community-focused people, these NIMBYs. We elect a government to govern - to take decisions between elections for us. The government is supported by a public service which provides detailed advice on options, their costs and their pros and cons. The government decides and it takes the electoral consequences.
It's hypothetical of course, but I would be ASTOUNDED if the Liberal-Nats could have managed current problems better than the present State government.
Posted by: David Truman at July 4, 2008 05:53 PM
The analysis is good - the left / green votes may well have a significant impact on Queensland's future.
Why? The labor governments in their various incarnations have served populist politics - Bjelke Petersen was ironically one of Beattie's heroes and doesn't it show. There is no inkling of sustainable policy or alternative thinking around Queensland's water and energy infrastructure. It's more of the same and people are starting to see through it.
The proposed conservative coalition opposition has less talent than the Boonah RSL karaoke amateurs night.
Anything intelligent would be nice in the nanny government state.
Posted by: Baxter Sin at July 4, 2008 02:22 PM
Where is the concern about Education and real money for resourcing and funding a 100% best schools for the State Education system rather than touting a lesser percentage of 'so called' top schools. Our kids in this State(and this country)deserve nothing less than this opportunity. If the public truly wants choice in Education then the Governments MUST come good with the cash to support such a system. Canada has been able to do amazing stuff with a real belief in providing top class public schools. It is time that the Government and the community realised that without this, all the other concerns cannot be addressed. Without an educated, thinking and productive population all we will continue to get is knee jerk reactions as we stumble from catastrophe to disaster without any concept of the long term or 'bigger picture'. Our State expenditure on education is shameful. Does it have to get to the abysmal condition of Health before anything is done with real intent?
Posted by: BiBi at July 4, 2008 02:17 PM
The reason Labor is still in power in Queensland
is that queenslanders will think "What else have we got?".
It is said so often on radio but I say "Anything
is better than what we have now" Give them a chance. We gave Labor a chance.
I feel that Wayne Goss skated through his term in
power on the coat tails of fore planning by Sir
Joh. It doesn't matter what you have against him
Queenslanders were looked after in every way and
we are not being looked after now.
Margie
Posted by: G M Mayers at July 3, 2008 04:53 PM
Look at QLD Labor. They have a history of having politicians convicted of child sex crimes, bribery, found to bully/intimidate and even strike public servants. So much violent offenders amongst this government.
We have also seen them raid the political offices of those whom they are opposed too, as well as when they disagree with well known doctors who push something QLD Labor disagrees with. How can we expect good government from a bunch of thugs?
Sadly, this former member of the QLD Nationals has seen how both the Nationals and Liberals continue to fall over themselves, refusing to listen to anything they don't want to hear. They are pathetic.
Should QLD Labor be re-elected, every single conservative party politician lucky enough to hold a seat should resign and let new blood take over.
Posted by: Earth.W at July 3, 2008 12:08 AM
Neither side is pleasing me at all. What Queensland needs is a strong person of great character to fix the mess created by Labor who smash toys like a spoilt child.
If only we could make Bob Katter Queensland's next Premier. If only.
Posted by: Earth.W at July 2, 2008 11:57 PM
The problem facing Queensland politics is the lack of vision by all parties for the future. Neither Labor nor the Coalition has articulated a clear direction. Springboard has used negative politics as a means of retaining a profile, but he sounds weak and directionless. His merger success may give him a positive profile, but if he doesn't capitalize on that to develop a positive vision for the state he will continue to merely lead an opposition. Bligh, like her predecessor, is still in damage control mode and has no broad vision to improve imfrastructure, public transport options, hospitals and alternative fuel initiatives. E.g., we are suffering from being the largest coal producing state without taking advantage of our huge natural gas options. Furthermore, I believe, the arrival of Dr Patel will raise more questions about the culpability of Qld Health than it will the guilt or innocence of the doctor. Our court system will appease the need for us to find a scapegoat, but it won't solve the problems that gave rise to the poor health outcomes of his patients. We are not the smart state. We don't even sound smart. We certainly are smug and perhaps we should put that on our number plates, "The Smug State".
Posted by: Paul Holland at July 2, 2008 10:37 PM
If the politicians spent less time mud slingning and trying to score points and started thinking about solving problems we might be better off.
By the time the roads and rail are fixed to carry the increasing traffic we now have, the price of fuel hikes will force most people off the roads or into public transport. The existing public transport is stretched to capacity during peak times in the Redlands now which means it will only get worse before (if ever) it gets better.
I think it will take better brains than we have in parliament at present to come up with a workable solution.
Trouble is, there is no obvious champ waiting in the wings, so to speak.
Posted by: Stewart Beveridge at July 2, 2008 08:45 PM
Hi Clover
My problem with the whole environmental debate is thus. What you are saying Bligh is doing is terrible. Reminds me of ole Joh sandmining Fraser Island. But if we elect the Coalition they will tow the line of their Federal counterparts for nuke reactors down the coastline. Not scaremongering but fact. Ziggy Switkowski said they must be placed close to population and the coastal water source. Most of the sites earmarked are high income earners in the tourist trade and are the beautiful trademarks of our lifestyle. What do we do? It seems the voters only have one choice and that is Greens. But this would have to be one vote. None of this garbage of assisting another party to take power.
Posted by: Deb at July 2, 2008 06:07 PM
I think the results are good news for everyone. Labor has had a chance to perform but sadly their performance has only been average at best. A closer look at the calibre of the elected Labor representatives tell us why we are sinking in a quandary of incompetence at all levels. It is also a good reason not to extend their (any side) terms to four years. So roll on the next election and hopefully Queenslander's will not reward this government again for their lack of ability and ever unfolding incompetence.
Posted by: Thomas at July 2, 2008 05:43 PM
I believe that the merger between the national and liberal party will amount to nothing given that there is a lot of excess luggage in the liberal party,for eg the sitting member for moggill. I believe that the consevative parties in this country need politions with statemanship qualities in the mould of jim killen if they want their political fortunes to turn around. Sadly there are none present.
Posted by: hans marki at July 2, 2008 04:55 PM
I believe our problems in Queensland stem from the fact that much of what is being complained about is concerned with the fact that funding from the federal Howard Government was stripped away from infrastructure and health, the federal funding always lags behind population movement, there needs to be better planning between States and Federal Government to project probable outcomes so that services accurately reflect movement in populations.
Posted by: Shaun Newman at July 2, 2008 01:20 PM
Since none of them deserve our vote DONT VOTE. We live in a One Party State that pretends to be a democracy.
Posted by: Paul Cameron at July 2, 2008 01:00 PM
You have to know that things have reached unacceptable proportions when you hear reports of 'govt will put a plan in place to clear away accidents quickly to allow the flow of traffic not to be disrupted during peak hour' And whose injured husband, daughter or son will be scuffled away morning -to- night as quickly as possible to hide the govt's shameful negligence and lack to provide us with safe roads per capita? Since when did we pass this stage of accepting such regular carnage on our roads as a way of life!! The roads that have been built are dangerous to drive on and can't handle the traffic when will the government LISTEN - WE the Queensland voters absolutely reject the governments delay and inability to fix up our roads, and also our health system. Don't you all just wish we could turf them all out and start with a new clean slate?? How many chances should we keep giving them? They're NOT listening and they're NOT acting. In my opinion it's still a matter of too little too late. I just cannot accept the carnage on our roads.
Posted by: Clover at July 2, 2008 12:52 PM
What is your thoughts of Open Pit Mining in the Whitsundays just a few klms from the Great Barrier Reef. Anna Bligh has kept it very quiet but I am trying to awaken everyone that the same problem that happened in Gladstone some 4 years ago is going to happen again in the Whitsundays. Geologically the areas are very similar. With the same valleys and wind conditions .. in Gladstone is was the Targinnie Yarwun Valley in the Whitsundays it is the Airlie Beach Shute Harbour Valley and the Whitsunday Island and Great Barrier Reef beyond. The Targinnie residence took out a Class Action against the Oil Shale Mine because their farms were ruined because of polution - their health was effected badly and they couldn't sell their property because it was now worthless. 140 farms in all - In the Whitsundays the valley holds some farms (sugar) but mainly it is lots of residence that live on the slopes at Airlie Beach. ALL FOR THE SAKE OF SYN OIL. What ever happened to bio oils and other forms of fuel other than oil ?? Australia has the Great Barrier Reef as one of it's major tourist attractions. With Climate Change the reef is having a trouble .. now the Qld Govt want to put more pressure on the reef all for the sake of royalties. How stupid is it that an overseas company is allowed to use the Great Barrier Reef as it's research data base because there is a moratorium on Oil Shale mining in the USA (because of environmental reasons) and won't be allowed to do any Oil Shale mining until they prove that it is environmentally friendly. How dumb is the Qld Govt. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2032053/posts
Posted by: Christopher Randall at July 2, 2008 12:40 PM
The main problem facing the Opposition is that Beattie was too successful at the last election in fooling the public into thinking he'd actually fix the problems he allowed to develop during his spin-over-substance premiership. He also had too much media complicity in his "I'm afraid of a voter backlash" campaign. He was so arrogant as to deny he was calling the election even when material was in the mail!!! He said on Channel 9 that "people understand that that's politics". It's disgraceful politicians like him that give decent guys like Springborg a bad name.
The key for the new party is to get quality candidates that will be sufficiently known and trusted that they can overcome the perception that the Opposition couldn't form a decent government.
Save us from this one-party state! And any move to bring Mal Brough in would be very welcome. With him as party leader and Springborg as parliamentary leader, I think they would have the foundation of an extremely strong leadership team.
Posted by: Robert Peffer at July 2, 2008 12:21 PM
While it's great to see the Greens vote at 21% in the poll I'd be very surprised to see them achieve that share of the vote at the next state election. Of course, if there are enough disaffected ALP voters who can't bring themselves to vote the Liberal Nationals we could see a significant shift in the electoral dynamics at the Qld state level.
Greens preferences will play a major role in this election if the primary vote is as close as the polls are suggesting. Both the ALP and the LibNats would want to do their best to offer the Greens an olive branch and some concrete promises if they want to win government.
Posted by: Sam Clifford at July 2, 2008 12:08 PM
Encouraging but Mr Springborg needs help. Perhaps Mr Brough will add some gravitas.
Posted by: David Wilson at July 2, 2008 12:06 PM