« Budget 2008 - the Quants | Main | Federal Budget 2008 - what voters approve of most »

18 May 2008

Politics of the 2008 budget - quantitative analysis

Has the budget made an impact on Rudd's standing?


Do you approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing?

  Greens Ind ALP Liberal National Total
Approve 78% 58% 96% 12% 11% 61%
Disapprove 7% 37% 0% 62% 70% 26%
Net 72% 21% 95% -50% -59% 35%

Our sample suggests that Rudd's approval rating is now fairly similar to a successful Labor Premier, and while extraordinarily good, is starting to come back to earth.

Would you be more likely to vote for Kevin Rudd because of the budget?

  Greens Ind ALP Liberal National ToTotal
More likely 31% 32% 61% 1% 0% 34%
Less likely 8% 37% 1% 69% 70% 29%
Net 22% -5% 60% -68% -70% 5%

What this table demonstrates is that the budget will intensify voting intention, but make little difference one way or the other. Liberal and National voters are significantly less inclined to vote for the government because of it, but the Liberal and National votes are also reduced to a hard core because of the extremely large share of the total vote that the ALP has at the moment

Do you approve of the job Brendan Nelson is doing?

  Greens Ind ALP Liberal National Total
Approve 7% 6% 8% 32% 30% 17%
Disapprove 66% 72% 64% 34% 41% 53%
Net -59% -67% -56% -2% -11% -36%

These are devastatingly bad figures for Dr Nelson. While his approval rating on this poll is higher than on other polls, his disapproval rating is more than 50%. There is limited room for him to improve as only 2% of people don't have an opinion, and 28% neither disapprove nor approve. His "strongly disapprove" figure is 27%, while his "strongly approve" figure is only 3%.

Would you be more likely to vote for Brendan Nelson because of the budget?

  Greens Ind ALP Liberal National Total
Better 18% 26% 17% 27% 19% 21%
Worse 30% 37% 48% 21% 15% 35%
Net -12% -11% -32% 7% 4% -15%

This poll was taken before the address-in-reply so it may have improved after that. However, what it says is that while the budget didn't win Rudd any votes, it lost Nelson some. You'll have to wait for the qual to find out why, but my strong suspicion would be that it is to do with his performance.

We also have figures on what percentage has changed its vote since the federal election. I won't reproduce the table, but 5% of last time Labor voters would vote Liberal if an election was held now, and 2% of Liberal voters would vote Labor. No Nationals have changed their mind. So there has been a small erosion of the Labor vote. Unfortunately there aren't enough of these people to be too sure what they represent, but I will have a look at the data later and see what we can make of it.

Posted by Graham at May 18, 2008 04:40 PM

Comments

The aftermath of the budget has changed my mind about Rudd. I voted against him, but if the election was held today, I'd go for him over Nelson, based on the last few weeks of budget back and forth.

Posted by: Patrick at May 30, 2008 12:35 PM

I have changed my mind about Nelson. He has wings since his budget reply and he is now doing his job. Still much to learn but definitely improved.

Posted by: Maggie at May 30, 2008 07:41 AM