What The People Want« Queensland Election 2006 - Week 1 | Main | Queensland election week three »
30 August 2006
Queensland election week 2
These are my notes for this morning's discussion with Madonna King on ABC Radio Brisbane's Morning Program.
- Flegg has fallen in a hole but it doesn’t seem to have affected the Liberal Party vote. One reason for this is that despite two weeks of disasters he is doing no worse than Bob Quinn. In March Quinn was 11% favourable, 54% unfavourable. When Flegg took over he was 16% favourable, 44% unfavourable. Now he is 11% favourable, 53% unfavourable!
- Another reason for this. Focus group last night of Liberal voters. They are prepared to give him time. Blame Beattie for calling the election early. Liberal vote is at bedrock – not too many voters left to lose.
- In the same period Beattie has improved his standing while Springborg has also gone backwards like Flegg.
- Beattie is seen by our swingers as being the least incompetent. That is vis-à-vis the Opposition as well as his own team.
- Springborg is seen as being young, immature, negative, whinging, inexperienced and incapable, ruling over a rabble – his own party and the coalition.
- Flegg is unknown to many. To those who do know something he comes across as smug, relying on his professional qualifications for standing, inexperienced and only playing one tune. There is also concern about him knifing Quinn, and about those like Caltabiano, who might knife him.
- The National Party vote has decreased in our samples. This is where the increase in Beattie’s vote is mostly coming from. Not sure whether this is because they have become disheartened and are not filling the surveys in, whether with the election closer they realise they only have a Liberal running in their seat, or whether it is the blue-collar conservative vote going back to Beattie. No doubt John would have a theory about his “smart-state voters”. I suspect these are the Howard Liberals deciding to stay with Beattie.
Beattie verbatims:
“His statements - we got it wrong but we will fix it. If there was a viable alternative I would vote for it.” Liberal going Labor, 51-60, male, 4305
“The apparently incompetent ministers he has around him who keep stuffing up & making him carry the can.” Liberal going Labor, 41-50, male, 4011
“That things that are in the pipeline, previously anounced are taking so long to get started eg The gate way duplication,our local ambulance anounced over a year ago and not a sod of dirt turned on site.” Liberal going Labor, 41-50, male 4152
“Beattie has been in power for nearly 10 years and had caused all the problems Qld faces, and now claims he has the answers. If he has the answers, how did it get so bad in the first place?” Labor going Liberal, 31-40. male, 4012
Springborg verbatims:
“Even worse than Labor” Swinger going Labor, 41-50, male, 4110
“He leads a rabble in Parliament one or two it seems are always tossed out each sitting for one infringment or another. If they act like hoons in opposition what would they be like as government. As well the shadow of the old corrupt national party is always hovering - whether fair or not for me it is scary.” Swinger going Labor, 61+, male, 4272
“He's a young man, who's trying to preach and sound like an old feral dog. It doesn't appeal to me at all, and his voice is so boring to listen to, or hear.” Greens going Labor, 61+, male, 4068.
“The lack of cohesion between the coalition. If they can't get on together now, how could they possible rule together.” Labor going Liberal, 41-50, Female, 4225.
Flegg verbatims:
“Total unknown. Calls himself Doctor in the hope that people will feel more confident about him and that it will give him more creedence in the Hospital issues” Liberal going Labor, 51-60, female, 4074
“An elitist unknown who has no political experience.” Swinger going Labor, 61+, Male, 4170
“flegg comes across as arrogant and smug. he would not get my vote if he was the only candidate on the ballot. when he sat next to that working class chap trying to eat his lunch i felt like throwing something at the tv (this happened at a shopping center last week).” Swinger going Labor, 41-50, male, 4151.
“I really know nothing about him. All I've heard is that he's made a few blunders in the early days of the election, but I think the same media factors come into play as with Springborg.” Labor going National, 18-30, female, 4151.
“They provide no viable alternative to Team Beattie. I heard the comment today that Flegg has been going around the state 'drumming up apathy'.” – Focus group participant, Labor going Liberal, 31-40, male, 4012.
For the tables you will need to download the full document from here
Posted by Graham at August 30, 2006 01:13 PM