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23 August 2006
Queensland Election 2006 - Week 1
These are the notes used for Madonna King's Progam this morning. We compared the poll that we have just undertaken with the one that we did back in March asking the same questions. This was to try and pick up trend movements. There were some interesting contrasts.
Comparisons between Benchmark Polls
- 821 responses versus 658 (to date)
- More heavily male this time (60% v 53%) but age splits very similar
- Nationals down 10% Labor up 6%,Greens up 3% and Liberals up 2%.
- Two-party preferred it has moved from 51% to Labor to 61%.
- State heading in the right direction? March – minus 24%, now only minus 6%. The difference is that Labor voters are much less likely to disapprove of the direction in which the state is heading now than they were 5 months ago. They’ve “come home”.
- Beattie favourability -11% across the sample, versus -24%. Again, it’s Labor coming home.
- Springborg favourability down from -5% to -25%. Mostly a move in Labor voters.
- Flegg is doing better than Quinn -27% for Flegg versus -43% for Quinn. Mainly a move in Liberal voters who are now +54% for Flegg while they were only +14% for Quinn.
- Expectation of a Labor win has increased from 47% to 66%, largely as a result of a change of mind of voters other than Labor voters.
Qual on whether the state is heading in the right direction
This is taken just from swinging voters, defined as those who change their votes between elections, or who vote against their traditional preference.
There is a very strong sense, even from those who agree that the state is heading in the right direction, that there hasn’t been enough planning. Those who think we are heading in the right direction tend to excuse the government and see their failure as being shared with previous governments. Others are not so forgiving.
One respondent, who emailed rather than filling in the questionnaire probably summed up the mood of those who might change the government when he said:
“I am going to give my vote to the Coalition. I have doubts about them, especially the unity of the Liberals, but have totally lost faith in Peter Beattie. He has had 8 years to do whatever he had planned but has failed to deliver anything of substantial value. At the last election he asked for a mandate to fix child safety. It has not been fixed. Health has gone from bad to worse, water and infrastructure planning is a disaster despite the obvious population growth, electricity supply is on a knife edge and not even the Tugun Bypass could get kicked along.
In my opinion Peter Beattie has had his chance and blown it. I don’t think the Coalition could do any worse so I’ll give them a chance. (My emphases)”
Verbatims agree:
“While there are problems with health and water, these are long-standing problems that sit on decades of inadequate planning for the future. What planning there was was inadequate to the task of dealing with the State's rapid population growth.” Male, 61+, Ind
“unemployment is low, taxes (state) low, crime low compared to other states” Male, 41-50, Liberal going Labor.
“We are getting so many people into QLD each week that it must be hard to keep up with all the infrastructure. Peter Beattie is doing his best with a difficult job. If i didn't think he was I would go back to NSW. My husband has never had so much work in all his life.” Female, 61+, Liberal going Labor
Verbatims disagree:
“The Beattie Government has not acted unless it has been forced to by a crisis. Despite much evidence that the State's population is growing rapidly there has been no timely planning to provide the increased inftastructure, water or power required.” Male, 41-50, Labor going Liberal.
“Too many backflips, too many commissions, too little action” Female, 61+, Labor going Ind
“There seems to be arrogance in decisions without listening to the local people that these decisions will directly impact. P.S. This will be the FIRST TIME in my 20 year voting history that I will NOT vote Labour, and NEVER did I ever expect to vote National (i.e. my father worked at Swanbank Power Station in the Jo era - but that's another story). The Spit development issue will directly affect me and my family, we frequent Doug Jennings Park and the spit a minimum 5 times per week.” Female, 31-40, Labor going National.
“We have to call a halt.Political spin doctoring does not run a business or a State as exhibited by the current Premier Cunning posturing,cosying-up to a compliant media,failing to follow up on promises,and outright lying cannot hide practical incompetence of the man and his followers.” Female, 61+, Labor going National
To see the tables you will need to download the word document by clicking here
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Posted by Graham at August 23, 2006 11:53 AM
Comments
We wqant Australia for Australians - Government for the citizens, (not the multinationals) - Vote independant whereever possible
Posted by: Ian BATTISSON at August 30, 2006 10:03 AM
In private industry complete failures as managers would not last 8 years but would be sacked. Incompetence should not be rewarded. The Coalition are an unknown quantity but how could they be possibly worse than the present smoke and mirrors people who have let almost everything run down. We elect people to do the jobs we cannot as individuals do ourselves. This trust has been betrayed. The present administration does not even have the courage to resign so they must be sacked. If they are voted in again then we deserve all the incompetence we will get.
Posted by: K Smith at August 29, 2006 07:46 PM
Every State and Territory is suffering shorrtages in medical professionals because of:
1. the descision by the Federal Government, over ten years ago, to slash the number of applicants for University Medical Courses
2. the strength of the medical "colleges" (professional trade unions) not to accept as many doctors as needed in their profession (thereby being able to charge larger fees)
I cannot believe how Queenslanders feel that this is the ONLY State suffering. Don't you talk to friends and families in other States and Territories? ALL are full of health problems.
Posted by: Mick at August 29, 2006 10:29 AM
Infighting, backstabbing and general ineptitude regarding preempting crises is par for the system. The uncoalesed coalition will give us as many stuff ups as labor and probably a lot more dams.
I guess the problem, as always, is not matter who you vote for, you always get a politician!
Posted by: Kim at August 29, 2006 10:03 AM
Lord help us for are blighted by the most useless bunch of political no-hopers Queensland has ever seen. Peter Beattie has overseen a health system driven to the depths of ineptitiude and cover-ups, water-roads-electricty infrastructure that is woefully inadequate and seems to only ever appear whenever an apology is required. The others in Labor seem to be invisible and only there to make up the numbers.
So you'd think the Libs, Nats, Ind, and others would be having a great day exposing the Labor flaws and stuffups. But no, all of them combined are so totally gormless as to not have a clue how to make use of a Labor Government that is on the nose. Pollies cream a lot of public money for these elections yet don't know how to use it!
My seat of Mt Ommaney is a good example of how politicans don't care. Now the election has been called Mr Harper is suddenly my best mate, despite me never having seen him in the 10yrs I lived in Jindalee. Ms Attwood is no better with complete silence in response to my correspondence. Nor have either of them bothered to call me to explain their positions.
This election will only see the politicians return their snouts to the public trough and continue to grow larger, more obnoxious and laugh at the sheer gullibility of Queensland voters.
Posted by: Brian Cusack at August 29, 2006 08:42 AM
I have to agree that Beattie has had his chance and now it is time for a change to the Coalition.
Health is a worry and water is too. I think that Labour is destroying the man on the land with his Blueprint for the Bush, Dams in wrong places and the disastrous Health System
Posted by: Roslyn at August 29, 2006 07:30 AM