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31 May 2006

Liberal/National Merger

These are the notes used in today's on-air analysis. We are still taking responses and will incorporate the revised figures into the final report.

Quantitative

Total Sample

1. This proposal is not receiving a large “head nod”.
2. The proposal has a slightly negative effective across the whole sample – minus 2%
3. The sample is more balanced than usual – 16% Greens, 27% Labor, 20% Liberal and 18% National
4. Best Liberal representation in one of our samples for a while – suggests Liberals are more motivated on this issue than Nationals of Labor.
5. Both Liberals and Nationals are more positive than negative on this proposal – 51% of Liberals and 46% of Nationals approve, while only 9% and 13% disapprove. However, worrying for them that 40% and 41% are neither more nor less likely to vote for the new entity than the party they now vote for.
6. Leadership still an issue. 35% want Lawrence Springborg, 33% have no opinion, 9% Caltabiano and 8% Flegg.

Swinging Sample

I analysed those Liberal, National and Labor voters who were changing their vote since last election from one side of the divide to the other. Results here are interestingly different.

1. 39% are more likely to vote for the new entity, and 18% less likely, making it a net 21% in favour.
2. Still 42% are still neither more nor less likely.
3. Best leader is still Springborg – 53%. Next best is Flegg – 16%. Then Caltabiano – 3%.

Conclusion

Not enough in this proposal to risk running it without widespread approval within the parties. Will make it more likely for swinging voters to vote against Labor, but the majority of voters couldn’t care less about it. Best combination to gain swinging voters would be Springborg leader with Flegg deputy.

Qualitative

I’ve done the qual just on the swinging contingent. A variety of points of view.

Two failure don’t equal one success:

“Two horses arses do not make a whole and healthy horse.” Labor voter, traditional Liberal, female, 51-60

Seen it all before:

“I cannot for the life of me believe that they are trotting out this rubbish again, I have voted for a Beattie government for the last 3 elections, he has blown all creditability as far as I'm concerned, last week topped everything, the standing of politicians in the community is fairly low, without tinkering with decriminalising lying to committies, city Liberals don't want to take on some of the redneck policies of the boys from the bush, they just need to do it through the polls and become the senior party in the coalition under the leadership of Caltabiano” Liberal voter, voted Labor last election, male, 51-60

Opposed to National Party influence:

“I was thinking of perhaps voting Liberal but I would NEVER vote for a party whose leader is Lawrence Springbord or National Party affiliates.I think they represent Qld of old,lack of education and bad image and ideas.” Liberal voter, voted Labor last election, female, 61+

Strength in size:

“qld politics is rather lop sided at moment, need a larger second party” National voter, Greens last election, female, 51-60

Liberals and Nats working together:

“The merger shows an ability for the Liberals and Nationals to work together and I think this is important.” National voter, Labor last election, male, 51-60

They’ll fight:

“The party would have a larger membership base with possible difference of opinions, which may cause debates to become more of an infight.” Undecided, Greens last election, male, 31-40

Less democracy, not more:

“I do not believe in less but in more Parties. Good democracy thrives on diversity, not simplicity.” Undecided, no normal voting pattern, female, 51-60.

Total sample pivots
Age Female Male Grand Total
18-30 2% 3% 5%
31-40 3% 8% 11%
41-50 8% 11% 20%
51-60 12% 21% 33%
61+ 13% 18% 31%
Grand Total 39% 61% 100%

First_Preference Total
Christian Democrats 0%
Democrats 2%
Family First 3%
Greens 16%
I don't wish to answer 1%
Independent 7%
Labor 27%
Liberal 20%
National 18%
One Nation 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 5%
Grand Total 100%

Likely_to_vote Greens Independent Labor Liberal National Grand Total
I do not wish to answer 0% 4% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Much less likely 28% 35% 31% 7% 7% 21%
Much more likely 5% 9% 4% 43% 33% 19%
Neither more nor less likely 43% 43% 43% 40% 41% 42%
No opinion 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
Somewhat less likely 16% 0% 13% 2% 6% 9%
Somewhat more likely 9% 9% 6% 8% 13% 8%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
More 14% 17% 10% 51% 46% 28%
Less 43% 35% 44% 9% 13% 29%
Net -29% -17% -34% 42% 33% -2%

Leader Greens Independent Labor Liberal National Grand Total
Bob Quinn 6% 0% 4% 4% 1% 4%
Bruce Flegg 4% 10% 6% 19% 2% 8%
I do not wish to answer 11% 6% 10% 2% 2% 7%
Jeff Seeney 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Lawrence Springborg 15% 13% 16% 50% 76% 36%
Michael Caltabiano 6% 10% 7% 17% 6% 9%
Mike Horan 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% 3%
No opinion 53% 55% 52% 4% 9% 33%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Posted by Graham at May 31, 2006 03:41 PM

Comments

Viewed recently and of interest to democratic countries: As stated in 1787 by history professor at University of Edinburgh, Alexander Tyler.

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the msot benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average of the worlds greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: 1) from bondage to spiritual faith; 2) from spiritual faith to great courage; 3)from courage to liberty; 4) from liberty to abundance; 5) from abundance to complacency; 6) from complacency to apathy; 7) from apathy to dependence; 8) from dependency back into bondage."

As a nation we have passed the 200 years. Where do we fit in the scheme of democracy?

Posted by: Martha at June 7, 2006 07:47 AM

I doubt that more than 2 per cent of average public would know anything about counting the senate vote. It is also possible that fewer than 10% of party personnel and parliamentarians know what had to happen to get four coalition senators elected. And yet these people set themselves up as experts and "devise" a scheme that is supposed to suit both State elections and Senate elections.

Posted by: Ronda Herrmann at June 3, 2006 12:03 PM

This is a National party fight for relevance.

Unfortunately what they don't realise is that to win government they'll need to win the south-east with policies that reflect the views of people who live there. ie Daylight Savings, 4 year Parliamentary terms and a progressive (not regressive) environment policy.

Conservative voters in the south-east identify with the Liberal Party becuase of their policies but with clueless career Nationals like Seeney and Vaughn, they only appeal to rednecks and are essentially unelectable.

Methinks the Nationals are almost irrelevant and just about finished!

Posted by: Philip Orr at June 1, 2006 07:03 PM

When Australian politics first began politicians were from the people and were true representatives of the people unlike a lot of other nations. We proved ourselves and had a system that was something to be proud of. Overtime this system has become corrupt. The majority of the politicians have no idea what it is to be a honest and true representation of the all of the Australian Public. The politicians are supposed to represent us a s a people but more and more as we move on in time we become clones of other countries and continue to dance to their tunes. We once were self sufficient and able to survive in a truly demanding country. We now rely on move and more overseas products and self sufficiency is a joke. We had and have the ability to lead the world in technology both green, scientific and food but instead we turn elsewhere to placate outside interests. We fought the war to end all wars, we became a true melting pot of culture and know we dance to others.

Posted by: Terry at June 1, 2006 05:31 PM

This political fiasco demonstrates again how far politicians and their minders are divorced from everyday reality. The community suffers incompetant elected representatives who in turn are either exploited by their cosseted bureaucracy or are unable to assess and implement the public needs. Perhaps the political situation in Queensland shows how urgently Australians need one Federal Government and one layer of regional governments.

Posted by: Ian Bryce at June 1, 2006 03:31 PM

God help Australia, the way things are going.
Spring borg is a bully with all talk squeemish, takes advantage of the moment, but would be gutless and not represent the average aussie thats for sure.
The only person who could do the job is Kevin Rudd.
But looks like he is not going to go against his fellow party, doesn,t want to create a divide, which is great and loyal, but we need him now not later.
John Howard, Springbborg, and Quinn
are a hiddeous collective, who in their right mind would want any of these Bush (suckers) get power.
Why dont we just get Bush here to play his games to.
At least then Aussies , the real fair dinkum ones would get rid of the lot.
And Bush can be got rid of too.
We need a very strong woman, and she is already being shhhhd.
She will have my vote any day , along with Kevin Rudd.
Why don,t people take a stand and turn the prime minister over to a very strong leading lady.
He needs to be sat on his arse by a WOMAN.
A Labor woman.

Posted by: Sandra Taylor at June 1, 2006 01:30 PM

Your survey only elicits responses from the interested folk in our society. Until more people start taking an interest in politics and get involved, we are going to have the old tired group of pollies who are answerable to no one. We get the politicians we deserve. Without diversity and enthusiasm for principles all politicians become self centred and representative of their own need to retain power. How many generations of Queenslanders will be blind to the responsibilities of citizenship and their opportunity to 'own' the government and its workings! We have produced too many political zombies who are ripe for every flashy news broadcast or media campaign without coming to grips with real process of government and more importantly becoming part of the process by informing themselves and taking action. We have taken our freedom for granted and now we are suffering the consequences of apathy. Every person of voting age can and must become involved otherwise it will only get worse and we will indeed have the government we deserve!

Posted by: Mary Rofe at June 1, 2006 01:21 PM

I post with Sandy taylor.
And Sandy usually forwards on your emails to her family who also post their replies, however Sandy did hers from hospital this last time, and I didn,t get to do one, neither was I able to forward your survey on to her family,
Tried to cut and paste , but didn,t work.
Are you able to post to [deleted], as they wanted to take part too.
Thanks

Posted by: ReG Grundy at June 1, 2006 01:18 PM

It,s a bit academic now but the central point which always comes out it that it is about personal power for these pollies and not what is best for the people and Australia.

Posted by: Bluey at June 1, 2006 11:35 AM

The socalled 'merger' proposal was purely an exercise with the narrow parochial Queensland State interest the priority.

Surely our highest common goal must be in the national interest which is to support the Federal Liberal Government and Coalition and to ensure that the present Federal government remain in power. Any action which might put this at risk must be resisted.

Springborg talks of the good of Queensland. Talk about Joh for PM!!

Springborg and Seeney are of the old National style of politician who hold no appeal for thinking voters.

Quinn must bear some responsibility for this fiasco and must be replaced. He is totally unelectable.

Posted by: Robert Blaikie at June 1, 2006 11:10 AM

I think that the PM may have it wrong when he states that the only way to go is for a merged Party under the Liberal banner. He is quoted as bassing this on the number of seats held Federally by the Liberal Party. If the Liberals lose the next State election (highly likely) he will say that Federal Policies had no measurable effect. If that was true then would it not also be true that the make up of the State Party would have no effect either. Seems to me it is just another case of "having your cake and eating it too".
Whilst the conservative parties behave the way they are Peter Beatie (Team Beatie) will more than likely keep winning.

Posted by: Richard Ward at June 1, 2006 10:57 AM

A big prod to vote for Peter Beattie is the Federal Lib government. Many or even most would not like to see a toady, grovelling compliant state liberal/N.P gov.
As well I see the present opposition as not so much attacking labour but using the labour woes for their own advantage. That is all they want is to form gov they do not seem to care about us voters. In doing this they come across as perpetual bloody whingers, carpers, and belly-achers. Finally as another has already stated the nationals carry tooo much weight re pre-Fitzgerald days. R. Patterson, Mt. Tamborine Qld.

Posted by: Robert Patterson at June 1, 2006 10:57 AM

As Springborg said there were too many egos on the line with the merger. I could see that Lib. Sen. George Brandis was the most against the merger. If the 12,000 Nats came over to the (4,000) Libs, George wouldn't be preselected again and we would have a few more Senators of Barnaby's type (hopefully). So George was in it for himself for one.

Interesting that some people said they would follow Barnaby's lead over Springborg anyway.

If the Libs are the natural future of Qld politics as the media keep telling us then why are the state libs so hopeless with so few members (both in the party and state parliament)? They only do well federally because the campaigns are run down south and all the public sees on tv is Howard, not QLD libs.

Posted by: Justin at June 1, 2006 10:04 AM

Hans, you're quite right, but every poll we do generally says more or less the same - people want a whole new group of politicians - so I get bored with saying it!!!

Mind you, I suspect it wouldn't matter too much who was doing the job - the reactions would still be the same.

Posted by: Graham Young at June 1, 2006 09:51 AM

What a shame that the committment to successfully working together in a 'new party' has disintegrated so publicly. Conservative voters in Qld want to see an end to 3 cornered contests, and resources focused on winning the next election because this state urgently needs a change of government. Managing change is always difficult and the benefit of hindsight should be a strategy to move forward bringing National & Liberal Party members and Qld voters with them.

Posted by: Jenny at June 1, 2006 09:39 AM

This hype over a merger distracts from the real issue. The Coalition needs to present the appropriate 'brand' in each electorate. the nats hold more seats than the Libs because they contest more based purely on a historical basis. the demographics have changed and the Coalition needs to offer a Liberal candidate in every urban/city electorate. 3 cornered contests are a recipe for disaster under 'optional preferential' so the Nats need to "suck it up" and allow the Libs to contest the city seats.

Posted by: Richard Priestly at June 1, 2006 09:24 AM

What a shame the amalgamation fell over. Beattie will be hard to defeat because he promotes "Vote 1" which helps to reduce the coalition vote. Voters must vote using the preferential system to be fair to all and they do not understand this. Beattie has decimated the bush in his time in power, he has removed asset values with no compensation, forced people to convict themselves in the courts and be unable to defend themselves,imposed huge unsustainable costs on people who have no way of recovering costs. Rural producers have no control over the price of their products, they take what is offered. If this Beattie Government continues people will go out of business and food will be imported. How safe will this food be, what controls will there be on insecticides used etc? People of Queensland need to think deeply before they vote.

Posted by: Judy at June 1, 2006 09:21 AM

The Federal Nats obviously realise that by merging with the Libs they would lose prestige especially Mark Vale. The Nats at present get to have the Deputy PM as a default setting thanks to the coalition agreement. All Australians know that Costello is more senior than Vaile in the pecking order. The self indulgence and petty mindedness of the National Party federally has consigned the conservatives in Queensland to the opposition benches for the foreseeable future. (Good). Lawrence Springborg should pack up his communist party memorabilia and join a party that is forward thinking. The current crop of Queensland Nationals are living in the past, still awaiting the resurrection of Joh.

Posted by: Drew Jackson at June 1, 2006 09:12 AM

One day conservative voters will have to present a united front.
I have been a supporter of the Nationals for 40 years and am frustrated and dissapointed with Federal and State party politics.
At the moment they cant think straight because of the sniggering from the labor side at there pathetic attempts to form an opposition.

Posted by: s.stirling at June 1, 2006 09:09 AM

The attempt to amalgamate the national and the liberal party in Qld was always destined for failure. It is better for the coalition to have it failed in the early stages rather than a complete disaster should they have amalgamated.

While Bob Quinn is leader of the Liberal Party Qld, the coalition will not topple the Beattie government. The 4% approval shows that other people think the same way.

Both the leaders of the Qld liberals and national parties should resign as the failure stops with them rather than blaming the management committees.

Posted by: john booth at June 1, 2006 08:43 AM

What a farce the whole thing was!! Upfront, I am a 63 year old female labor voter, so really didn't care what happened with the merger. I, along with several of my friends, am just really angry generally at the federal liberal govt we are inflicted with. For the first time in my voting life I really hate a govt. Do not know why the Australian public keep putting back into govt a party who are determined to kill Medicare, charge our kids huge fees for Uni education, sell off all our assets, and lie like pigs in mud, ie do we really believe they didn't know about the wheat scandal. PS. As a small business person, I also detest the GST.

Posted by: Jocelyn Speight at June 1, 2006 06:39 AM

I am surprised by the initial outcome of the Poll. I think the swing would be enough to get Beattie out next election..BUT when it comes to Polling Day..I think there is too much confusion for some older Australians to realise WHO is actually getting the preferences, and that is where Beattie would get back in. Just my opinion.

Posted by: Helen Hirst at June 1, 2006 05:58 AM

well both the libs and that nats have done them selves a diservice by the idea and again beattie has something to throw back in their faces

Posted by: karen butler at June 1, 2006 04:16 AM

53% no opinions in respects to the preferred leader is indicative obviously that the electorate is not happy with the current crop of polititions in parliament.

Posted by: hans Marki at May 31, 2006 11:44 PM